Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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362 FXUS64 KHGX 271308 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Some isolated to scattered showers noted northeast of the CWA early this morning...generally situated near a weak frontal boundary stalled out across northeast Tx and Lousiana. With PW`s around 2" situated to its south & southwest, would anticipate some additional tstm activity across portions of the region today as we get some some daytime heating going. Seabreeze/baybreeze might come into play later today as well. Any stronger cells that develop will be capable of producing some gusty winds. As far a temps go, they`ll remain slightly above normal across most of the region but increased cloud cover should generally keep heat indices in check. Exception might be w/nw portions around the Brazos Valley who`ll be a bit closer to the mid level ridging and could see a few hours of 107-109F heat index values. Re-issued a heat advisory there today to better match up with neighbors. Convection should diminish fairly quickly with the loss of heating this evening. The diffuse frontal boundary to our northeast should wash out on Friday and mid-upper ridging expands a bit further eastward into the area. So, would expect some lower POPs and less cloud cover. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A mid/upper level high (colloquially called a "heat dome") is expected to amplify over the Southeast CONUS/ArkLaTex Region over the weekend into next week. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest that the mid level high will be centered near the Red River Valley on Sunday, with 500mb heights peaking at 597-599 dam. 850mb temperatures are still progged to rise to 19-21C, with this upward trend reflected in ensemble multi-run max temperature values at the surface. During the first half of next week, the aforementioned mid level high appears to drift eastward into the SE CONUS. Naturally this will reduce it`s influence over SE Texas, though this effect will be subtle at best as highs drop 2-3 degrees by Wednesday. Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s daily, with PWs largely in excess of 1.75" through mid next week. Ample moisture and weak capping in place will bring daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms, especially south of I-10 with any sea-breeze driven convection. If any impulses that round the bottom of the midlevel ridge could further aid in shower/storm development, though guidance has trended downwards with respect to PVA and rain chances as a whole. Additionally, NASA`s GMAO shows that Plumes of Saharan Dust will pass over SE Texas this weekend into the beginning of next week. This may result in hazy-white sky conditions during this period. In general, expect highs in the upper 80s near to upper 90s through mid next week. Isolated spots could see the highs break the triple digit mark, especially on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices during the afternoon will range from around 106-113 at their peak, with isolated higher values possible. The Heat Risk for those participating in leisurely outdoor activities will be Moderate (level 3/5) to Major (level 4/5) each day. WBGT values suggest that those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may feel Extreme (level 5/5) heat stress during the hottest parts of the day. Additional Heat Advisories could be warranted throughout this period. Those planning to spend extensive time outside should practice heat safety. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from the sun. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions expected for the most part. Would anticipate some sct tstms around the area today. Due to the unorganized nature, it`s tough to pinpoint any specific timing for the TAF sites...maybe late morning and early afternoon for UTS/CXO and early afternoon to sunset for the metro area to the coast. Cells will most likely move from NNE toward the SSW versus the more typical S to N summertime direction. Anticipate some gusty winds possible in and near the strongest storms. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated over the next several days. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 77 97 79 / 30 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 96 79 95 80 / 40 20 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-195>198-210-211. GM...None. && $$