523
FXUS64 KHGX 021755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Expanded the heat advisory southward to incorporate the Houston
metro, as heat index values were matching the pace of those in the
existing advisory area, and it seems unlikely this dense urban
core will see a significant dropoff in the afternoon relative to
the less densely built up areas farther north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A Heat Advisory will be in affect again this afternoon. Conditions
remain largely unchanged with high pressure continuing to maintain a
hold over SE Texas. Highs for today and Wednesday will be in the 90s
area wide, with a few locations potentially touching 100F. The
abundant moisture trapped under the ridge of high pressure will
combine with increasing temperatures and lead to heat indices
reaching into the 105-110F range through the near-term period.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility
in the afternoon with diurnal heating/sea breeze activity; however,
most of the region will remain rain-free.

Nighttime lows will provide little relief from the daytime heating.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the mid 70s to around 80F,
and with high humidity this will make for rather warm and muggy
conditions.

Continue to exercise heat safety, remember to look before you lock,
and if you have pets, remember that if it is too hot for the palm of
your hand it is too hot for their paws!

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Heat will continue on Thursday and Friday as the area remains under
the influence of mid/upper level ridging. High temperatures will once
again peak in the low to mid 90s closer to the coast and in the upper
90s to around 100 inland. A Heat Advisory will most likely be needed
once again for much of the area as heat index values approach/exceed
108 degrees. Saturday`s highs look to cool down a couple of degrees
with a similar downward trend expected on Sunday and Monday (highs in
the low to mid 90s) as central U.S troughing extends southward into
the state. In addition to this slight cooldown comes increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the Saturday through Monday
time period. We will also be keeping an eye on the track Beryl decides
to take as the latest National Hurricane Center forecast edges her still
south of but a little closer to the Texas/Mexico border. Please keep
up with their forecasts as the week progresses.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR with light winds throughout. With generally light winds,
expect to see the diurnal landbreeze/seabreeze pattern play a
greater role in wind direction, particularly closer to the coast.
Expect to see an isolated shower today, but confidence in anything
impacting a particular terminal is too low to mention in the TAF.
Perhaps LBX has the best chance of needing an amendment, as a
shower has cropped up 12ish miles SW of the site. Perhaps a
slightly better potential for isolated to widely scattered showers
tomorrow, but still not enough confidence to justify mention in
any TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Surface high pressure in the vicinity will result in light winds and
a more distinct landbreeze/seabreeze circulation today followed by a
more prevalent onshore flow as we head into mid and late week. We might
see another longer period swell arrive at some point this weekend in
association with Hurricane Beryl. Keep updated with the latest forecasts
on Beryl from the National Hurricane Center.

42

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast on Beryl weakens her to
a tropical storm and brings her to the south of the Texas/Mexico border
on Sunday. Please continue to monitor Beryl`s future forecasts from
the National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) as any changes to the
track and/or intensity could result in a change in our area`s forecast.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100  77  98  78 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  98  79  95  80 /  20   0  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  94  83  91  82 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     196-198>200-212>214-227-237-238-300-313-338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...42