Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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987 FXUS64 KHGX 290430 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1130 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 TODAY IS INTERNATIONAL CAPS LOCK DAY, SO I`M THROWING IT BACK TO THE OLD SCHOOL DAYS...I PROMISE THAT I`M NOT YELLING AT Y`ALL (NO CAP). THE HEAT GOES ON WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 90S AND OUR FIFTH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS OF ~2PM CDT, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT THE BIG STORY IS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT ARE IN THE REALM OF 106-112F. EVEN GALVESTON HAS REACHED A HEAT INDEX OF 111F THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINING OVERHEAD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. THE SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH ELEVATED PW VALUES (1.7-2.0") HAVE HELPED TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE WEST OF I-45. THIS IS OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION WHERE THINGS BUILD UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, SO THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN SHOWER TO COOL THINGS OFF TEMPORARILY. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY RUNS THROUGH 7PM CDT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 106-112F RANGE. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 12PM CDT ON SATURDAY AND RUN THROUGH 7PM CDT IN THE EVENING, SO THAT`LL BE SIX DAYS IN A ROW WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN FIND BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING BACK INLAND FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LIFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE 20-30% RANGE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO CREST THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY, PLEASE CONTINUE TO KEEP HEAT SAFETY AT THE FOREFRONT OF ANY PLANS THAT YOU MAKE (ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE OUTDOORS). KNOW THE LOCATIONS OF THE NEAREST COOLING CENTERS, KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, WEAR LOOSE/LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING ALONG WITH SUNSCREEN, AND ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. DON`T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS AS WELL! IF THE GROUND IS TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF YOUR HAND, THEN IT IS TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS. STAY SAFE, STAY COOL, STAY HYDRATED. BATISTE && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 I`m old, but no caps. A somewhat typical summer time weather pattern should continue for SE TX through the long term as broad mid/upper level ridging ling- ers over the S/SE CONUS. This will result in warm/hot temperatures along with chances of mainly daytime showers/storms with the occa- sional easterly wave (moving in from across the northern Gulf) and seabreeze interaction as we progress through the week. Per current runs, we could see some isolated POPs each day for mostly the I-10 corridor south to the coast. Otherwise, the main forecast issue is going to be the continuation of these (above normal) temperatures. Highs should generally run in the mid to upper 90s with some areas likely reaching 100-101 daily for the long term. Lows will are go- ing to range in the mid to upper 70s. 41 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities are still anticipated to develop overnight across our northern TAF sites (CXO northward). Look for S winds around 5 to 9 knots. Any ceilings that do develop should persist until around 15Z when increasing S winds settle into the area (around or slightly above 10 knots). Some models are still hinting at possible SHRA developing overnight, and will adjust TAFs if this happens. VFR in the afternoon, and still not confident enough to mention any VCSH at this time. Anything that does develop will dissipate in the evening. Expecting to basically repeat this whole thing Saturday night through Sunday morning. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Guidance continues to show a broad area of low pressure (currently in the western Caribbean) eventually sliding into the Bay of Camp- eche by Sun (then tracking WNW into Mexico Sun night/Mon). Not ex- pecting all that much in terms of local impact, save for increased seas as longer period 4-6ft swells track into the upper TX coastal waters by Sat night or early Sun. Otherwise...mostly light to mod- erate onshore winds will prevail. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 80 96 79 97 / 0 30 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 10 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438- 439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...42 MARINE...41