767
FXUS64 KHGX 022035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Major Hurricane Beryl is getting a whole lot of attention, and
there is good reason for that. However, in the near term, we also
have to pay attention to another bout of unseasonably high heat.
Both are potential threats and need some attention - and while
hurricanes are eye-grabbing and command attention, heat doesn`t
often do that. That heat is real, potentially deadly, and it is
here now. So, some key messages to remember for the next week or
so:
- Heat advisories continue through at least this evening around
  the Houston metro and points north and northwest. While tomorrow
  may be a touch cooler, it also looks a touch more humid, and
  advisories may still be needed. At night, there will be little
  relief to be found with lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s
  expected.
- Given the conditions, it`s important to keep heat safety front
  of mind if you have outdoor plans, especially if you will be
  exerting yourself. In addition to high heat index values, the
  wet bulb globe temperature, an index particularly useful for
  heavy exertion, looks to rise into the extreme range for a
  handful of hours tomorrow afternoon.
- Continue to monitor the latest forecast information on Hurricane
  Beryl. Uncertainty in the forecast grows significantly beyond a
  few days from now, and will have a significant influence on
  potential impacts - if any - for our area. Arming yourself with
  the latest info from our office and the National Hurricane
  Center is needed to stay prepared.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today is a summery day if ever there was one; although really, we
have so many summery days. But today is definitely one of them
with 3pm temperatures solidly up into the middle 90s across
Southeast Texas, and heat index values ranging from around 100
degrees on the low end to 110 degrees on the high end. This well
describes the range for established, well-maintained airport
sensors. When it comes to other, informal weather sensors, many
heat index values are higher. Though the specific values have to
be taken with a whole shakerful of salt (no, Willis, the heat
index is not really 130 there), it`s a pretty strong indication
that it is very hot, right around or over the threshold for a heat
advisory.

We can expect something very similar tomorrow. While the numerical
guidance seems keen on knocking high temperatures down to around
90 degrees, it also does so while keeping 850 mb temps steady as
well as 500 mb heights. If anything, the mid-level ridge looks
like it may be slightly stronger tomorrow. Because of this, I
opted to stick with something virtually identical to the existing
high temperature forecast I inherited from the overnight shift.
Though this is ever-so-slightly "cooler", it`s only a degree or
two, and looks to be offset by dewpoints that look slightly higher
thanks to a slightly more established bit of onshore flow. As a
result, forecast heat index values are expected to change very
little, if at all, and another heat advisory may be needed
tomorrow.

For those who are physically exerting themselves tomorrow, it may
also be worth noting the wet bulb globe temperature forecast for
tomorrow. While today, WBGT peak values look to be in the high
risk bin in the advisory area, it appears that we may see an area
of extreme risk emerge for a few hours in the early afternoon.

If you`re looking for overnight relief...please don`t. With such
high dewpoints, the temperature floor is very high. Lows in the
lower 80s should be expected near the coast, and while those far
inland away from the Gulf may see a little better temperature
drop, even there we`re only looking for lows in the upper 70s. For
true heat relief, it will take access to air conditioning, even at
night.

In addition to the heat, we are seeing a little bit of activity on
the seabreeze, but with the big emphasis on the word "little".
Because of subsidence from the strong ridging aloft, most updrafts
fail to really get going, but we have seen a few weak showers
spring up on the seabreeze around Angleton. We may see a couple
more today before the sun starts to go down. Tomorrow, we can
expect more of the same, largely. Isolated to widely scattered
showers, maybe a storm or two, focused mainly along the
convergence of the seabreeze boundary.

Okay, this part of the forecast covers a lot of the heat threat.
Now you may move on to the long term, and take a look at what
Beryl may (or may not) have in store for our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Thursday begins with high pressure aloft over the SE CONUS with an
upper level trough digging into the North/Central Plains. NAEFS and
GEFS indicate that 500mb heights will be approaching the 90th
percentile for this time of the year on Thursday, with deterministic
models suggesting heights will reach around 593-594 dam. 850mb
temperatures will be around 18-21C, though NAEFS and GEFS would
suggest that this is relatively "on-par" for what typically occurs
in the summertime. Deep moisture of 1.8-2.0" PWs and isentropic
lifting should bring daily chances of showers/storms through the end
of the week. This particularly so during the afternoon in areas
along and south of I-10, with modest instability present for any
developing showers/storms. Steep low level lapse rates may allow for
some of these storms to produce gusty winds. Overall, we`re still
looking at highs in the 90s with isolated spots reaching triple
digits. Heat indices of 105-111 could warrant another Heat Advisory
for Thursday, and maybe even Friday depending on how things trend.

The aforementioned upper level trough will dig through the Great
Lakes on Friday, weakening ridging/high pressure aloft over SE Texas
and thus providing mild relief from the heat. Additionally, this
feature will attempt to push a weak frontal boundary across the
ArkLaTex area late Friday and into SE Texas on Saturday. This, along
with weakening in the midlevel ridge, would indicate better chances
for rain, and even more relief from the heat. Though, these factors
may be of little importance in the grand scheme of things, as
conditions over the weekend are expected to be largely contingent on
the behavior of Hurricane Beryl.

By Saturday, Beryl is currently expected to be over the Southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Current track guidance suggests that Beryl will take
a slight northerly turn during this period, making landfall
somewhere along the Mexico to Southern/Central Texas coastline on
Sunday/Monday. At minimum, we could see elevated surf and stronger
winds across the Gulf waters. However, uncertainty on the full
extent of it`s impacts remains high, so please watch the forecast
closely this next several days as we monitor Beryl.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR with light winds throughout. With generally light winds,
expect to see the diurnal landbreeze/seabreeze pattern play a
greater role in wind direction, particularly closer to the coast.
Expect to see an isolated shower today, but confidence in anything
impacting a particular terminal is too low to mention in the TAF.
Perhaps LBX has the best chance of needing an amendment, as a
shower has cropped up 12ish miles SW of the site. Perhaps a
slightly better potential for isolated to widely scattered showers
tomorrow, but still not enough confidence to justify mention in
any TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast through the end of the work week.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible daily, mainly along
the sea breeze. Over the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Beryl is
expected to enter the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is
currently expected to track West to Northwesterly over the weekend
into next week. At minimum, strong winds and high seas will be
possible across the Gulf waters. The elevated surf will also
result in a high risk of rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches.
The full extent of this system`s impacts remain uncertain, so stay
tuned over the next several days as we monitor Beryl.

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Hurricane Beryl is at major hurricane strength (category 3 or
higher) and is currently making it`s way across the Carribean Sea.
Beryl is expected to weaken Thursday/Fridays as it passes over the
Yucatan Peninsula, encountering stronger vertical wind shear.
Despite the relatively hostile environment, model consensus suggests
that Beryl will survive it`s journey over land, and enter the
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Storm on Saturday. SSTs
are currently around 28-29C, conducive for strengthening this
system. Current track guidance suggests that Beryl will take a
slight northerly turn during this period, making landfall somewhere
along the Mexico to Southern/Central Texas coastline on
Sunday/Monday. The full extent of the impacts from Beryl remain
uncertain at this time. At minimum, we could see elevated surf and
stronger winds across the Gulf waters. However, we cannot rule out
the potential for Tropical Storm Conditions, especially for areas
near Matagorda Bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  98  77  99 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  96  80  97 /   0  40   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  85  91  83  90 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     196-198>200-212>214-227-237-238-300-313-338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03