Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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144 FXUS64 KHGX 292338 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 In case you haven`t gone outside in the past week...or month...it`s hot. Temperatures as of 2pm CDT are mainly running in the mid 90s with heat indices well into the 100s and solidly into Heat Advisory territory ( 108F). With that in mind, today`s Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of Southeast Texas through 7pm CDT this evening. There will be another Heat Advisory in effect for Sunday for the same areas, but more on that in the next paragraph. We already have some spotty showers developing near the I-10 corridor. Some of the 12Z CAMs have additional development occuring later this afternoon across portions of the Piney Woods. Any convection that develops will dissipate shortly after sunset. Not much relief in store from the warmer temperatures overnight as we`ll only drop into the upper 70s/low 80s tonight. This would be about ~5F above normal for low temperatures. Sunday will live up to its name with plentiful (and in my opinion too much) sunshine as the mid-level high intensifies leading to 500mb heights climbing to 596 dam. This will further increase the subsidence aloft leading to a lower potential for the typical afternoon showers along the seabreeze. With high pressure in closer proximity, we`ll also have lighter winds in place as well. So, most locations (except those along the coast), will not much of a "cooling" breeze through the afternoon. So...long story short...it`s going to be a bit hotter. Temperatures will be about ~1F hotter than what we experience today (Saturday), but on the plus side it`ll be a teensy bit drier so heat index values will be a bit lower (but not by much). Heat index values will mainly be in the 107-111F range, so another Heat Advisory will go into effect from 12pm-7pm CDT Sunday. This`ll be Day #7 in a row with a Heat Advisory in effect for at least some portion of Southeast Texas, so our heat streak will make officially make it (at least) one week! We are also on the lookout for a plume of Saharan dust (light concentrations) moving in Sunday afternoon, which could create a bit more vivid colors in Sunday`s sunset. The dust plume is expected to linger over eastern Texas into early next week. With heat index values near or above Heat Advisory criteria ( 108F) through Sunday, please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the locations of the nearest cooling centers, know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear loose/light-colored clothing with sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, stay hydrated. Batiste/Bird && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Hot, humid and generally dry weather conditions continue through the long term period as upper level ridge remains anchored over our region. No major changes have been made for the Monday through next Saturday time frame. With the surface high centered over the north- central Gulf, warm and more humid Gulf flow will continue to surge moisture inland, resulting in isolated, diurnally-driven showers/storms each day. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to move over the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche this weekend; however, no significant impacts are anticipated for our region other than elevated seas/swells through Monday. In addition to hot and muggy weather, the work-week will start off with hazy skies due to a plume of Saharan dust arriving into the region. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are continuing to develop and move north across and out of the CWA at this time. Did include the mention of VCSH in for CLL with this latest package, but amend- ments could be forthcoming for UTS/CXO shortly based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise, S/SE winds will be decreasing through the overnight hours with spotty development of brief patchy fog or low clouds (MVFR) by sunrise (at our usual spots for the most part). With only widely scattered/isolated chances for precipitation like- ly again for tomorrow, will not add any mention of VCSH/VCTS in at this time. Else, VFR will prevail with SE winds 10kts or less. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will persist as the surface high remains anchored over the north-central Gulf. These conditions will continue this weekend and will prevail through most of the upcoming week. A long period swell is expected tonight into Monday in response to an area of low pressure moving towards the Bay of Campeche. Seas from 4 to 6 ft can be expected through at least Monday morning. A brief period of offshore winds will be possible on Tuesday, but overall, light to moderate onshore winds and seas generally from 3 to 5 ft can be expected through most of the work week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 81 97 80 99 / 10 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 82 93 / 0 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438-439. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438- 439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...41 MARINE...JM