389
FXHW60 PHFO 020642
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
842 PM HST Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad high pressure ridge will remain locked in place north of
the Hawaiian Islands into the upcoming weekend. Trade wind speeds
will range from moderate to breezy for most days. Fairly stable
conditions will produce mostly brief passing showers over
windward and mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad subtropical ridge north of the island chain will keep
moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast lasting into the
upcoming weekend. A slight ripple in the force is shown on infrared
satellite imagery this evening as a band of clouds moves into the
Big Island. This north to south oriented cloud band is associated
with a weak low level trough riding into the islands on the
easterly trade winds. Expect a slight increase in clouds and
showers through the early morning hours across the windward slopes
of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island as these unsettled clouds
drift into the mountains of each island.

Otherwise mostly dry conditions will prevail this week with only
brief passing showers over windward and mountain areas. Shower
amounts will be limited due to the strong subsidence under this
high pressure ridge pattern. Trade wind thermal inversion heights
will range from around 4,000 to 6,500 feet with most windward
areas only seeing isolated to scattered shower coverage, favoring
the overnight to early morning hours. Some exceptions may include
the eastern slopes of Maui, and the windward and Kona slopes of
the Big Island where periods of passing rain showers will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through
Tuesday. A band of low clouds and showers will bring some MVFR
cigs/vsbys to windward areas as it moves from east to west across
the state late tonight and Tuesday.

No AIRMETs are in effect. AIRMET Sierra may be required for
windward Big Island and Maui late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north northeast of the state will bring fresh to
strong trade winds through most of the week. By this weekend, the
high will weaken and move off to the northeast as a trough
approaches from the west. This will allow for trades to ease
slightly across the local waters. A Small Craft Advisory is
posted for the waters and channels around the Maui and The Big
Island through Wednesday morning, but will likely need to be
extended through the remainder of the work week.

No significant south swells are expected during the forecast
period. However, a series of small south- southwest and southeast
swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.

Typical flat to tiny surf conditions will continue along north
facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will
be close to seasonal levels over the next several days, as
fresh to strong east northeast trades persist over and upstream
of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the
California coast should bring a small northeast 3 to 4 foot
medium period swell Saturday into early next week. Some of this
swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well.

Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the
Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor
flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water
levels expected on July 4th. Our last full moon, we did receive
reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the
high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood
Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of
July. For the other islands, water levels are running just a
touch above normal and will likely not reach our criteria of 1
foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for the windier
waters around Maui and the Big Island.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...JT