Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
626 FXHW60 PHFO 170119 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 319 PM HST Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Stable, breezy trades will trend stronger and somewhat wetter as the week progresses. The trade wind pattern continues into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A strong trade wind inversion around 6kft noted on this afternoon`s observed soundings. Composite radar imagery indicates little in the way of shower activity areawide this afternoon with very little upstream per the latest visible imagery. Dry and breezy trades continue through tonight with the best opportunity for measureable rainfall over windward and mauka zones. Trade wind weather persists through the forecast period as the large scale pattern undergoes little in the way of change. Building mid-level ridging over the Central Pacific Basin will cause the surface gradient to strengthen over the islands during the latter half of the week with locally strong trades in place as early as Thursday. This will also allow slightly richer low-level moisture to be drawn up from the southeast which will foster an increase in trade wind shower coverage during the same period. The overall trend through the week will one of stronger trades and a greater coverage of showers, particularly windward and mauka during the overnight and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy ENE trades will continue over the next several days. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible across mainly windward and mauka areas as low clouds and showers ride in on the trades...particularly overnight when shower coverage is expected to increase. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate low level turbulence lee of the island terrain across the state due to breezy trade winds under a strong tradewind inversion. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed for windward areas tonight due to a slight uptick in low clouds and showers. && .MARINE... A high pressure ridge will remain north of the area and will gradually strengthen through the week. As a result, the trades are expected to become fresh to locally strong, with near gale winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and south of the Big Island on Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) currently in effect for the normally windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island will likely continue through the week, with an expansion to include the waters around Kauai and Oahu on Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline as the south swell fades through Monday. Only background small, medium to long period, south to southeast swell energy will move into the region for the rest of the week. North shore surf is expected to be small through the week, coming from small, mainly medium period northwest swells. Surf along east shores will become increasingly rough and choppy from Wednesday onward as the trade winds strenghten across the state. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Farris MARINE...Kodama