Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
470 FXHW60 PHFO 020133 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 333 PM HST Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build north of the Hawaiian Islands resulting in trade winds becoming breezy to locally windy later this week. Fairly stable conditions will keep passing showers over windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over windward and mauka areas this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Limited moisture upstream of the state has resulted in isolated light showers over windward areas. Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue across the region tonight with fairly dry conditions as high pressure builds to our north. Guidance continues to show high pressure lingering north of the islands through the week. Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist through the first half of the week then strengthen to breezy to locally windy by mid to late week. Expect a fairly typical summertime trade wind weather pattern this week as high pressure across the region stabilizes the atmosphere. Clouds and passing shower will primarily affect windward and mauka areas, with a slight increase in activity during the overnight and early morning hours. With the exception of the Kona slopes of the Big Island see isolated afternoon/evening showers due to local sea breezes, leeward areas should remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION... Locally breezy trades deliver limited clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas through the period. MVFR possible on an isolated basis, mainly over portions of Windward Big Island. Otherwise, VFR prevails. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will bring fresh to strong trade winds through most of the week. A Small Craft Advisory is posted for the waters and channels around the Maui and The Big Island. Trades may weaken slightly on Wednesday, before a slight uptick on Thursday and Friday. No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat. Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along north facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will gradually trend up closer to seasonal levels late today through the middle of this week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small northeast (050 to 060 degree) swell by this weekend and into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well. Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water levels expected on July 4th. Our last full moon, we did receive reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of July. For the other islands, water levels are running just a touch above normal and will likely not reach our criteria of 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ahue AVIATION...JVC MARINE...Foster