985
FXPQ50 PGUM 292136
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
736 AM ChST Sun Jun 30 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows partly sunny skies and widely scattered showers
moving through the Guam and Rota Waters, with mostly sunny skies and
isolated showers moving through the Tinian and Saipan Waters. The
Ritidian buoy reveals combined seas of 3 to 5 feet, composed of
trade-wind swells of 3 to 5 feet and 2 to 3 foot wind waves.

&&

.Discussion...
The moisture for this week looks a bit more restricted than it did
last week. Seems this is largely due to a, for now at least, less
robust than previously expected appearance of the monsoon trough.
While the current unfavorable state of ENSO can`t stop the monsoon
trough, it can hamper and restrain it. So the trough will get here,
but it`s starting to look like it won`t be this week. Still, some
moisture is filtering up from the south, so rainfall should slowly
increase, and then sometime later the trough itself will arrive. The
latest data from the GFS shows a particularly favorable presentation
on day 16, but of course many models will promise you the moon that
far out, the point is, will it start to move forward, and if so when.
At that time, if not earlier, we will be able to shed the drought
designation.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas will remain within the 3 to 5 foot range for the
foreseeable future in the ECMWFwave model, while in the GFSwave model
they start at 3 to 5 feet then gradually diminish toward 1 to 3 feet
in the extended. Since historically the GFSwave has trended a bit
low, leaned toward the ECMWFwave solution. Meanwhile, winds will be
10 to 15 knots pretty much the whole time, which will lead to benign
marine conditions this week. Enjoy them while they`re here.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Unsettled weather continues across most of the region due to an
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and upper-level support from a
Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) to the north. Widespread
showers and several thunderstorm clusters are found around the
Marshalls, then a weakened segment of the ITCZ stretches north of
Kosrae, across Pohnpei, and ending east of Chuuk. Last night`s
scatterometry pass did capture outflow boundary winds reaching up to
26 kt, originating from strong, collapsed storms to the east. This
matched well with yesterday`s forecast, however satellite imagery
shows that showers have cleared for the most part for today and ITCZ
showers will have a chance to rebuild tonight. Otherwise, no major
changes to the forecast. This upcoming week, models show a fairly
active ITCZ pattern as trade-wind troughs continue to propogate
through, but subtle shifts in the boundary will also bring brief
periods of fairer weather as well.

Winds will generally be light to moderate, with fresh to strong
gusts possible for Kosrae today, and Pohnpei through tonight.
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet for most of the region and up to 6 feet
at Majuro.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
A tropical disturbance west of the region continues deliver abundant
moisture and induce a broad area of convergence in far western
Micronesia. Satellite imagery shows pockets of deep convection moving
through the main islands of Palau and Yap this morning. Models
guidance depicts unsettled weather, however poorly-organized over the
next day or two, then quieter weather is expected for the remainder
of the week as a weak wind pattern sets up with some subtle
disturbances passing through and bringing scattered showers at times.
Island-effect convection could also flare up at times next week
under the weak wind regime.

Wind are mostly light to gentle with fresh to strong gusts possible
with heavier showers tonight for Yap and for Palau today. Buoys
indicate seas between 2 to 4 feet and will remain fairly benign as
the week progresses and swell and wind waves decrease.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
Micronesia: Cruz