876
FXPQ50 PGUM 011954
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
554 AM ChST Tue Jul 2 2024

Marianas...

.Short-Term Update...
Scattered showers still remain in the forecast for Guam and Rota
today. However, due to the movement speed of the TUTT cell aloft,
brought in thunderstorm potential for Guam earlier, to today
instead. As such, isolated showers will move in tonight, but do not
expect thunderstorms to form once again until Wednesday. Otherwise,
the marine and surf forecasts remain unchanged.

Eastern Micronesia...

.Short-Term Update...
Only minor changes in forecast philosophy. For Pohnpei, extended
scattered showers into tonight, blending them into the Wednesday
showers. Little change for Kosrae. Increase the winds slightly
tonight in Majuro. Overall it looks fairly wet, although with a short
break for Kosrae and Majuro. Benign marine conditions will coninue
with widespread 3 to 5 foot seas, although these could tick up by 1
foot at Majuro late in the week.

&&

Western Micronesia Update...

.Short-Term Update...
Just minor changes for satellite and model data trends. Delayed the
onset of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at Palau until
Wednesday night. No changes at Yap. Chuuk is in a region of both
directional and speed convergence at this time, with upper-level
divergence too. Looking quite wet, so went with 100 PoPs today and 70
PoPs tonight. QPF will not be overwhelming though, probably just a
couple of inches. Marine conditions could get challenging in Yap
Waters on Wednesday with 20 knot winds possible, but it should be
short lived. Otherwise, benign marine conditions will continue, with
seas 3 to 5 feet at Chuuk and around 3 feet at Palau and Yap.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 544 PM ChST Mon Jul 1 2024/

Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies and isolated showers
to the west of the Marianas, with an increase in showers approaching
from the east. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy are
indicating seas of 3 to 5 feet.

Discussion...
The disturbance that brought scattered showers across the southern
Marianas today has pushed west. Another weaker disturbance will clip
the region tonight into tomorrow, with more scattered showers
possible for Rota and especially Guam. Showers should remain isolated
for Tinian and Saipan. For the rest of the period, multiple
disturbances will pass near to south of the Marianas. Expect upticks
in clouds and showers, especially for Guam and Rota where moisture
will be deeper and convergent flow will be more prevalent.
Instability will trend up from south to north beginning Tuesday
night, with isolated thunderstorms possible for Guam Tuesday night
and Wednesday, then all of the Marianas Wednesday night through
Friday.

Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will
continue this week. Some gusty winds and choppy seas are possible
near heavier showers and thunderstorms, mainly over Guam and Rota
waters, as a couple of disturbances pass near to south of the
Marianas.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along east facing
reefs, with a low risk along all other reefs. Little change in surf
and rip risk expected for the week.

Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Isolated showers tonight for Majuro and Kosrae as the ITCZ remains
weak and shifts north. Most of the convection north of Majuro is
expected to stay north and move west. May see a few light showers for
Majuro next day or two, but around the second half of the week,
expect heavier showers as an ITCZ develops again over Majuro and
moves into Kosrae. Made a few adjustments and increased the shower
potential at Majuro for possible numerous showers and scattered for
Kosrae mid week. On-and-off scattered showers for Pohnpei most of
the week, as models indicate showers associated with the ITCZ
developing later this week to diminish before it gets to Pohnpei. For
Chuuk, increasing clouds and showers are in store for tonight
through tomorrow night and expecting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, and possibly higher potential for numerous showers or
locally heavy based off the latest GFS.

Altimetry reported 4 to 6 feet near Pohnpei`s waters, expecting
little change in wave heights.

Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
For Palau and Yap, isolated showers from tonight through Tuesday as a
ridge extends across the area. Around Wednesday, shower potential is
expected increase as convection develops east of Yap with a TUTT
extending across the region.

Altimetry reported 2 to 4 feet near Chuuk and Palau`s waters, and
buoys at Babeldaob and Yap reported 2 to 3 feet. Expecting little
change in wave heights.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila/Slagle
Micronesia: Stanko/Hong