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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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722 FXUS62 KGSP 012330 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 730 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler high pressure continues over the region through Tuesday. As this high moves off the East Coast middle of the week, temperatures will warm back up again Wednesday into Thursday. Expect increasingly hot and humid conditions going into the weekend with some scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially in the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 550 PM EDT Monday...Made some tweaks to the slight chance (25% or less) PoPs across the southwestern fringes of the forecast area through 00Z Tuesday as some very isolated showers have been trying to develop late this afternoon. Any showers that manage to develop quickly fizzle before coming close to producing thunder, so also removed any mention of thunder where there are currently PoPs. Daytime cumulus filed should gradually dissipate around sunset and as lower dewpoints filter into the region from the north. Otherwise,a 1028 mb sfc high will drift east from the Great Lakes to the New England Coast through Tuesday. Dry NE`ly flow around this high will continue to lower dewpoints across the forecast area, while the 850 mb flow veers E`ly, then SE`ly through the period. Enough moisture within that flow may keep some stratocu around, especially over the southern half of the forecast area and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. The clouds will be capped, however, so not expecting any precip. The dry air advection should preclude fog development overnight. Lows will be slightly below normal, mainly in the 60s. Tuesday looks like a quiet and rather pleasant day for early July, as dewpoints dip into the 50s for most of the area under a fair weather cumulus field. Highs will end up around 5 degrees below normal, which will feel quite nice compared to the last several days. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday: Synoptically, high pressure continues to amplify over the south and sets the stage for many days of warming. Height rises max out by Thursday and remain stout through the period. Guidance from the GFS develops an extremely weak shortwave to the north of the CWA on Thursday and attempts to bring a very small amount of DPVA near the mountains. However, this is not depicted in any other model and given the strong area of high pressure, confidence for any shower development is very low. Moisture, in at least the mid levels, looks to start returning Wednesday night into Thursday as the anticyclonic flow advects moisture from the Gulf. As for any fire concerns, these should start to decrease through the period. Wednesday looks to have a well mixed BL, but with less mid level dry air than Tuesday. RH values should remain in the upper 40 to 50 percent range. Winds will also be light. The main concern is drier vegetation, especially in the NC Piedmont and NE GA zones. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach the low 90s in the southern portion of the CWA. But, Thursday high temps start ramping up as the high amplifies. The heat index could also reach the low 100s as the influx of moisture returns to the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday: Summertime remains alive and well into the extended. Thursday night the strong area of high pressure continues to grow over the southeast, while beginning to be pinched off a bit. Guidance from the GFS/EURO/Canadian all show a developing trough across the upper CONUS that gently pushes the high eastward slightly and turns flow aloft more SW by Saturday. This turning should amplify moisture advection into the south, raising the risk for high heat indices Friday and Saturday. Confidence in triple digit heat index values is increasing, given the persistent height rises and moisture return. Guidance has PWAT values topping the 2 inch mark, setting up a very muggy day for Friday and Saturday. The areas of concern are for areas south of I-85 and the eastern NC Piedmont. Will continue to monitor. By Sunday, the trough to the north could help heights fall a bit and cool the CWA down by a few degrees. This is still too far out to pinpoint or have any confidence in given variations from model guidance. Once moisture returns, there could be an increase in more diurnal convection and shower chances, especially over the mountains. But, at this point, QPF response is minimal and again concentrated over the NC mtns. Low confidence in precipitation making a dent in rainfall needs for the CWA over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... 1) BKN to OVC VFR Cloud Cover is Possible Tonight but Confidence is Very Low 2) Low-End Wind Gusts are Possible Overnight into Tuesday Morning at KAVL and the SC Upstate Terminals At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 00Z TAF forecast period thanks to high pressure filtering in from the north. Cloud cover will be the trickiest part of the forecast as the 18Z HRRR shows BKN to OVC skies developing late this evening into the overnight hours. However, confidence on this is very low (due to much drier filtering into the region from the north) so went with FEW to SCT cloud cover for now (as drier air may limit cloud coverage somewhat). Winds remain NW at KAVL as of 00Z but should gradually turn SE later this evening, remaining SE through the end of the period. Winds east of the mtns are mostly E/ENE as of 00Z but should gradually turn more NE after midnight. Wind speeds will remain elevated this evening into tonight, ranging from mostly 5-11 kts. Winds will increase around daybreak slightly, with low-end gusts possible at KAVL and the SC Upstate Terminals. Only have gusts mentioned at KAND for now. With winds not expected to decouple, fog formation is not anticipated. Winds east of the mtns will remain NE through Tuesday morning before turning E/ESE Tuesday afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease in speed Tuesday afternoon/evening. Cloud cover should generally be less during the daytime Tuesday but may increase again Tuesday evening. Outlook: Dry high pressure remains in place through Wednesday. A return of more typical mid-summer diurnal convection is expected starting on Thursday and will linger into the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/DEO NEAR TERM...AR/ARK SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AR