819
FXUS62 KGSP 011808
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler high pressure continues over our region
through Tuesday.  As this high moves off the East Coast in mid week,
temperatures will warm Wednesday and Thursday.  Expect increasingly
hot and humid conditions going into the weekend with some scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially over the
mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...A 1028 mb sfc high will drift east from the
Great Lakes to the New England Coast tonight thru Tuesday. Dry
NELY flow around this high will continue to lower dewpts across
the forecast area, while the 850 mb flow will veer to ELY, then
SELY thru the period. Enough moisture within that flow may
support keeping some stratocu around, especially over the
southern half of the forecast area and near the Blue Ridge
Escarpment. The clouds will be capped, however, so not expecting
any precip. The exception will be across the Lakelands and the
southern Escarpment, where a stray shower or two may develop
before sunset. The dry air advection should preclude fog
development overnight. Lows will be slightly below normal,
mainly in the 60s.

Tuesday looks like a quiet and rather pleasant day for early July,
as dewpts dip into the 50s for most of the area under a fair wx
cu field. Highs are expected to be around 5 deg below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday: Synoptically, high pressure continues to
amplify over the south and sets the stage for many days of warming.
Height rises max out by Thursday and remain stout through the
period. Guidance from the GFS develops an extremely weak shortwave
to the north of the CWA on Thursday and attempts to bring a very
small amount of DPVA near the mountains. However, this is not
depicted in any other model and given the strong area of high
pressure, confidence for any shower development is very low.
Moisture, in at least the mid levels, looks to start returning
Wednesday night into Thursday as the anticyclonic flow advects
moisture from the Gulf. As for any fire concerns, these should start
to decrease through the period. Wednesday looks to have a well mixed
BL, but with less mid level dry air than Tuesday. RH values should
remain in the upper 40 to 50 percent range. Winds will also be
light. The main concern is drier vegetation, especially in the NC
Piedmont and NE GA zones. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach
the low 90s in the southern portion of the CWA. But, Thursday high
temps start ramping up as the high amplifies. The heat index could
also reach the low 100s as the influx of moisture returns to the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday: Summertime remains alive and well into the
extended. Thursday night the strong area of high pressure continues
to grow over the southeast, while beginning to be pinched off a bit.
Guidance from the GFS/EURO/Canadian all show a developing trough
across the upper CONUS that gently pushes the high eastward slightly
and turns flow aloft more SW by Saturday. This turning should
amplify moisture advection into the south, raising the risk for high
heat indices Friday and Saturday. Confidence in triple digit heat
index values is increasing, given the persistent height rises and
moisture return. Guidance has PWAT values topping the 2 inch mark,
setting up a very muggy day for Friday and Saturday. The areas of
concern are for areas south of I-85 and the eastern NC Piedmont.
Will continue to monitor. By Sunday, the trough to the north could
help heights fall a bit and cool the CWA down by a few degrees. This
is still too far out to pinpoint or have any confidence in given
variations from model guidance. Once moisture returns, there could
be an increase in more diurnal convection and shower chances,
especially over the mountains. But, at this point, QPF response is
minimal and again concentrated over the NC mtns. Low confidence in
precipitation making a dent in rainfall needs for the CWA over the
next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected thru the period
at all TAF sites, as dry NELY flow continues across the region. A
few isolated showers may form west of KAND, but otherwise no deep
convection is anticipated. Low-level low will veer to more ELY
overnight, and may help produce varying amounts of VFR-level
stratocu. But cloud bases are not expected to be under 3500
ft. Wind will be generally 5-10 kt, with occasional gusts until
late aftn (possibly lingering a little longer at KAVL). A period
of low-end gusts may return to the Upstate sites after daybreak,
with highest chances at KAND. Wind will veer to close to due ELY
at KCLT, favoring SELY by late aftn on Tuesday.

Outlook: A cold front will stall just south of the area, resulting
in quiet weather thru mid-week. A return of more typical mid-summer
diurnal convection is expected by Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK