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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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405 FXUS62 KGSP 050543 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 143 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hottest day of the week expected on Friday. A cold front moves in from the north on Friday night, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend. A typical seasonal pattern of afternoon showers and storms will start Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 145 AM Friday: Warm night so far, despite mostly clear skies across the CWA. Update for the 06z TAFs, with the public fcst looking in good shape. Otherwise, the southeast will remain under relatively flat upper ridging thru the near-term period. On Friday, a weak sfc boundary to the west will approach our CWA helping to increase low-level moisture across the area. Expect PWATs to approach 2 inches, es- pecially over our southern zones. With temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, the higher dewpts will likely produce heat index values of 105 degrees across the majority of our non-mtn zones Friday afternoon. As such, a Heat Advisory for those counties remains in effect from 11 am until 8 pm on Friday. The higher dewpts should also help produce considerably more sfc-based instability on Friday. This will result in sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our area for the aftn and evening, with the best best coverage expected over the higher terrain. The severe threat still appears minimal for most of our fcst area on Friday, however SPC does have a portion of our NC mtn zones in a Marginal Risk area for Day 2. The main hazard will likely be gusty winds from strong downbursts. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 AM Friday...Upper heights begin to fall Sat as a weak sfc bndry moves into the region. This front looks to stall just south of the FA and provide a focusing mechanism for widespread convection during the afternoon. The atmos remains quite moist during this time with abv normal PWATS and with weak column flow, the stage may be set for slow and/or back-building cells which could lead to flooding issues by the later afternoon. The severe risk is not great as mlvl LRs remain low-end and no sigfnt forcing aloft will be present, however, a few cells could pulse to severe levels producing large hail and damaging downburst winds. With dewpts remaining in the l70s across the srn zones, HI values may once again reach advisory levels as temps rise abv normal by a few degrees. On Sun, drier air will work in from the nw/ly mostly abv the sfc, but close enuf to vertically mix dewpts back to normal. The models have trended a little drier with sfc hipres attempting to ridge in from the NW, yet still expect areas east of the mtns to have the best chance of convec along a weakening yet existing sfc bndry. High temps return to more normal levels Sun while lows persist a few degrees abv normal each night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 AM Friday...The ext range will see the return of a more normal summertime pattern. Broad subTrop ridging will dominate aloft and keep any major fronts north and west of the area, while a sfc Bermuda High remains in a favorable position to maintain good Atl/GOM moisture flux into the area each day. Soundings look real similar each afternoon with warm mlvls and skinny sbCAPE yielding arnd 1500 J/kg or less each afternoon. Triggering will remain low, however, some models show weakening vort energy traversing the ridge Mon afternoon. In any case, not anticipating any organized severe threat as the column flow remains weak thru the period. However, PWATS remain abv normal so the potential exists for slow-moving high- precip storms to create isol hydro issues. Storms should have no problem activating early on each afternoon as LCLs link up with LFCS rather quickly in the moist environment. Thus, storm coverage will likely become abv normal with the mtns zones receiving the highest PoPs. Max temps return to normal levels with no good indication of HI issues, while a moist atmos maintains mins a little abv normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Other than some mountain valley fog, expect VFR conditions this morning. The main concern will be convection timing and coverage. Guidance in decent agreement on activity firing across the mountains in the aftn, then slowly expanding/drifting east into the Piedmont late aftn thru this evening. Have TEMPO at KAVL and PROB30 groups elsewhere with timing of greatest chances. But thunderstorm activity may be earlier or later, so timing will be refined as time goes on. Winds will be out of the SW, peaking during the aftn. Convection will wane late in the 06z TAF period, with plenty of lingering VFR-level cloudiness and light wind. Outlook: Diurnally-driven convection will continue each day thru the weekend and into early next week, leading to sct showers and thunderstorms and possible restrictions each afternoon/evening. Fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning, especially over areas that received rain the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-029. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-104>109. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...ARK/JPT SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...ARK