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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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571 FXUS63 KGRB 111123 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 623 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Benign weather conditions are expected today through the middle of the week. Few slight chances for showers today and Monday, but most locations will stay dry. - Next chance for more widespread thunderstorms comes toward the end of the week, but severe weather potential during this time period is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Synopsis: Slightly warmer temperatures return today with a warming trending into the start of the upcoming week as the mid-level low currently centered over the easter UP shifts to the east. Only slight chances for scattered showers across the region today and Monday with predominately dry conditions through the mid-week. Next chance for more widespread thunderstorms returns toward the end of the week as a more well developed low crosses the northern Plains. Precip: More recent CAMs runs are favoring a slightly slower departure of the mid-level low that has produced several rounds of lake effect showers over northern and northeastern WI the last few day. This trend as lead to a slight increase in the chance for a few isolated showers this afternoon across northern WI. However, with warmer temperatures arriving at the mid-levels this afternoon lake- effect processes won`t be as efficient so most places may just see a cumulus field develop. Dry and mostly clear conditions should prevail tonight into Monday morning as a mid-level ridge moves over the region. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with a slight chance for showers Monday afternoon/evening as an upper-level shortwave and surface boundary develop across the region. The best chance for a shower and possibly a rumble of thunder (10-15% chance) will be in the vicinity of the surface boundary current forecast to be oriented from north- central to east-central WI. A lull in the precip chances Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper-level ridge builds over the region. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returns toward the end of next week as a more well-develop low is forecast to trek across the northern Plains into the upper-Mississippi Valley. Currently models don`t show the ingredients for severe weather coming together well, but will need to monitor this period as our next potentially impactful weather producer. Temps: Height rises and less breezy northwest winds today will allow for temperatures to warm back near seasonal with highs in the middle to upper 70s for most locations. Expect the warming trend to continue into the middle of next week with highs each day reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels should remain comfortable through the first half of the week as dew points sit in the middle 50s to low 60s. Does look like southerly flow Thursday and Friday will usher in higher dew (middle to upper 60s), but humidity levels should not feel oppressive. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Scattered cloud deck based around 5kft has drifted south over northern WI, as far south as RHI, this morning. Otherwise skies have become mostly clear across the region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. A scattered cumulus field based around 5kft is forecast to start developing around 16/17Z. Did not include any rain at any of the TAF sites, but there is a slight chance for a few showers this afternoon, mainly across northern WI. Impacts of any showers would be minimal. Skies should start to clear out this evening, with high clouds spreading in from the west starting Monday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......GK