709
FXUS63 KGLD 020009
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe potential this afternoon and evening with all hazards
  potentially possible.

- Storm chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday with severe
  possible.

- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; albeit a bit cooler.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

With temps continuing to slowly drop via the latest hourly obs,
have decided to end the Heat Advisory early. Still expect
portions of Graham county to see slowly dropping temps until
the precip west of there reaches this location in the next hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mid level troughing continues to push towards the northern Plains
along with a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado.
Stratus continues to be persistent across the northeast portion
of the area which does bring some concerns for the Heat
Advisory for Norton and Red Willow counties in particular. Will
continue to leave in place as RAP does show the stratus breaking
up some in the afternoon; along with the moist air mass in
place will not take much diurnal heating for low to mid 100 heat
indices to occur.

Main focus is on thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening.
Warm front currently looks to be draped from roughly Chase county
Nebraska down through northern Rooks county in Kansas which is the
edge of the stratus deck. Continue to think this will continue to
slowly lift to the north and north east. CAMS, including WOFS,  have
slowly been shifting westward towards the Highway 27 corridor for CI
to occur this afternoon along the axis of a surface trough. Storms
may struggle initially but should slowly intensify as they move into
the better moisture, will need to watch for landspout potential
along this boundary as well as cells develop. As these storms mature
large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat as
they move off towards the northeast. If a storm can become a
dominant supercell from the initial round of convection and
interact with the warm front a supercell tornado potential may
develop but is highly conditional on multiple factors coming
together. A 2nd round of convection looks to occur along the
surface trough moving west to east across the area. Scattered to
numerous storms looks to occur with this posing some continued
severe potential; CAMS have been continuously picking up on a
stronger cell with UH track roughly along the KS/NE border. If
this does occur and other cells don`t impact it much then a
conditional very large hail threat may occur given the 15Z RAP
environment.

Rainfall chances look to end around midnight MT across the area. RAP
indicates some additional moisture moving through the area
tonight which looks to provide another potential for stratus and
fog overnight; better surface moisture and more northeasterly
winds along the KS/CO border leads to believe that area will
have the relative better potential for at least patchy fog
development.

RAP keeps stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area for
the majority of the day tomorrow along with fairly high 700mb
moisture which makes me thinks clouds will play more of a role on
high temperatures for the day Tuesday so have lowered
temperatures down about 5 degrees across the area resulting in
highs in the 80s.

Another, conditional severe threat looks to be in place across
the area tomorrow afternoon. A boundary and some weak omega
looks to be in place from roughly Norton county down through
Greeley county; however RAP soundings show a mid level CAP in
place which would hinder storm development; also do have
concerns about how much instability will be in place especially
if the cloud cover does continue to hold. If a storm where to
break the CAP then an all hazards scenario would be on the
table.

Tuesday night additional 700-500mb mid level moisture looks to work
in from the south bringing additional chances for showers and storms
overnight mainly along and south of Interstate 70. With drier
air in place initially the low temperature may occur early on
in the evening/night before steadily rising as the increase in
moisture occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Active pattern looks to continue to start the period as well with
another surface trough moving through the area. A dry line looks
to be set up across northern Colorado back towards the Front
Range which will be the main focus for initiation. Supercells
capable of very large hail and strong winds looks to be the
primary threat as storms develop. At this time, storms look to
eventually grow upscale into a potential MCS moving to the ESE
based on the current forecasted 700mb steering wind as wind
becomes the main concern. High temperatures are currently
forecasted in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area.

4th of July, another surface trough will move through the area
associated with a deepening low pressure system across the
northern Plains. At this time, not seeing any clear signs for
rainfall, but the main story for any fireworks may be breezy
winds around 30-40 mph across the area. Pattern recognition
also does support the potential for breezy to gusty winds as
well. A cooler, rain cooled air mass from the northern Plains
looks to be advected into the area with high temperatures in
the 80s for the holiday.

Late week and into the weekend, ridging looks to develop across the
western CONUS with a large surface high encompassing most of
the southern CONUS. This will open the area up to additional
rain chances with any disturbance that slides down the eastern
periphery of the ridge. Continued daily chances for showers and
storms looks to occur through at least early next week as
western ridge begins to slowly move to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions for the forecast period. Some
VCTS is possible through 03z Tuesday, as well as 6sm BR
possible from 08z-14z Tuesday. Winds, southwest 10-15kts
through 03z, then shifting southeast. By 08z Tuesday, becoming
northerly 10-20kts.

For KMCK, mixed conditions are expected through the forecast
period. First from 00z-03z 6sm in TSRA w/ some hail potential.
VCTS overnight from 03z-12z. From 12z-20z, BKN005-015 ceilings,
then VFR by 20z. Winds, east-northeast 10-15kts then shifting
northerly around 10kts. By 15z Tuesday, northeast 10-15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99/Trigg
AVIATION...JN