979
FXUS63 KGLD 020700
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
100 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe potential this afternoon and evening with all hazards
  potentially possible.

- Storm chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday with severe
  possible.

- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; albeit a bit cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mid level troughing continues to push towards the northern Plains
along with a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado.
Stratus continues to be persistent across the northeast portion
of the area which does bring some concerns for the Heat
Advisory for Norton and Red Willow counties in particular. Will
continue to leave in place as RAP does show the stratus breaking
up some in the afternoon; along with the moist air mass in
place will not take much diurnal heating for low to mid 100 heat
indices to occur.

Main focus is on thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening.
Warm front currently looks to be draped from roughly Chase county
Nebraska down through northern Rooks county in Kansas which is the
edge of the stratus deck. Continue to think this will continue to
slowly lift to the north and north east. CAMS, including WOFS,  have
slowly been shifting westward towards the Highway 27 corridor for CI
to occur this afternoon along the axis of a surface trough. Storms
may struggle initially but should slowly intensify as they move into
the better moisture, will need to watch for landspout potential
along this boundary as well as cells develop. As these storms mature
large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat as
they move off towards the northeast. If a storm can become a
dominant supercell from the initial round of convection and
interact with the warm front a supercell tornado potential may
develop but is highly conditional on multiple factors coming
together. A 2nd round of convection looks to occur along the
surface trough moving west to east across the area. Scattered to
numerous storms looks to occur with this posing some continued
severe potential; CAMS have been continuously picking up on a
stronger cell with UH track roughly along the KS/NE border. If
this does occur and other cells don`t impact it much then a
conditional very large hail threat may occur given the 15Z RAP
environment.

Rainfall chances look to end around midnight MT across the area. RAP
indicates some additional moisture moving through the area
tonight which looks to provide another potential for stratus and
fog overnight; better surface moisture and more northeasterly
winds along the KS/CO border leads to believe that area will
have the relative better potential for at least patchy fog
development.

RAP keeps stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area for
the majority of the day tomorrow along with fairly high 700mb
moisture which makes me thinks clouds will play more of a role on
high temperatures for the day Tuesday so have lowered
temperatures down about 5 degrees across the area resulting in
highs in the 80s.

Another, conditional severe threat looks to be in place across
the area tomorrow afternoon. A boundary and some weak omega
looks to be in place from roughly Norton county down through
Greeley county; however RAP soundings show a mid level CAP in
place which would hinder storm development; also do have
concerns about how much instability will be in place especially
if the cloud cover does continue to hold. If a storm where to
break the CAP then an all hazards scenario would be on the
table.

Tuesday night additional 700-500mb mid level moisture looks to work
in from the south bringing additional chances for showers and storms
overnight mainly along and south of Interstate 70. With drier
air in place initially the low temperature may occur early on
in the evening/night before steadily rising as the increase in
moisture occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Thursday...an upper level low pressure area is forecast to move
east-southeast across the northern plains with the flow aloft from
the west-northwest. Guidance continues to advertise a generally dry
day with a 20%-30% chance for thunderstorms during the night across
the southwest 1/2 of the forecast area as a weather system per 700-
500mb relative humidity moves through from the northwest. Otherwise,
we`re looking for breezy north winds during the day as surface high
pressure strengthens from the north. High temperatures are forecast
to be below normal in the upper 70s to middle 80s, spot on with
850mb temperature bias` over the past week or so. Low temperatures
fall into the lower to upper 50s.

Friday...the forecast area is forecast to be under northwest flow
aloft, in between low pressure to our north and east and a
strengthening ridge to our west. Similar to Thursday, it appears per
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts that another
weather system skirts the far southwest 1/3-1/4 of the forecast area
during the afternoon and early evening hours, potentially supporting
a 20% chance of thunderstorms. Presently, pops are limited to the
Flagler area. High temperatures are forecast to remain below normal
in the lower to middle 80s, in great agreement with GFS/ECMWF/GEM
850mb temperature bias` from the past week or so. Low temperatures
are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday...not much change in the general 500mb pattern when
compared to Friday. There is some agreement from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
models that another weather system will move through the area during
the afternoon through late evening/overnight hours, supporting 20%-
30% chances for showers and thunderstorms. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb
temperatures rise a few degrees, supporting high temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
middle 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday...500mb pattern remains similar to Friday and Saturday.
GFS/GEM models are in fair agreement bringing another weather system
into western parts of far eastern Colorado during the afternoon,
supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms. This system continues
moving southeast through the remainder of the forecast area
overnight with 20%-30% chances for thunderstorms. High temperatures
are currently forecast to be in the 85-90 degree range. This could
be a bit warm given GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures supporting
highs about 5F to 7F cooler. Low temperatures fall into the middle
50s to lower 60s.

Monday...the 500mb pattern shows no signs of significant change when
compared to the prior few days. That is also reflected in the
thunderstorm forecast with 20% chances during the typical afternoon
and overnight hours. High temperatures look to be near normal in the
middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

KGLD will be on the southwestern fringe of a low stratus and
fog layer. Confidence is about 65% that KGLD will remain VFR,
but this could quickly change if the layer spreads to the
southwest.

KMCK is in the heart of the low-level moist layer and conditions
will flip back and forth between LIFR and VFR based on density
of the 200 ft ceilings and how if a thicker patch of fog moves
over the airfield. We aren`t expecting conditions to improve
much until late morning when the sun burns off the clouds and
fog.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CA