594
FXUS63 KGLD 010705
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
105 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather returns Monday behind a warm front with highs
  returning to the low 100s east of the Colorado border.

- Chances for storms each day, mainly during the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are a wide mix of sunny to
cloudy as many locales still seeing lingering low cloud cover from
this morning. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in
the lower and mid 60s east where clouds are most prevalent, to the
upper 60s and into the 70s where sunshine has finally broke through
due to dissipating clouds. With a front to the west and high
pressure east, winds remain southerly with a tight gradient in the
west closest to the front and associated low, with gusts still 25-35
mph at times.

Main weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the
return of hot conditions, mainly Monday, along with the chances for
strong to severe storms later today and again on Monday and Tuesday.

For this afternoon into the evening hours, the front to the west
will be the focus of trw initiation via the latest CAMs (HRRR, RAP
and NamNest). There are some timing differences between the 3 models
but overall around the 23z-01z timeframe will start west pushing
east ahead of the front through 06z Monday before tapering off. SPC
has a Marginal Risk for storms in place for this afternoon and
tonight along/west of Highway 27. Model soundings do show
instability over the first few hours of starting, will taper in time
as activity shifts east. Some locales could see some locally heavy
rainfall this evening per WPC`s latest Day 1 Outlook for Excessive
Rainfall.

Going into Monday, the aforementioned front will lift into the
northern CWA with some lingering precip during the morning. The next
chance for storms will occur around midday as convection initiates
along the front. Hot conditions in the warm sector has prompted a
Heat Advisory for eastern locales, with areas west seeing conditions
variable due to the timing/positioning of cloud cover along the
front. Heat indices for zones along/east of Highway 83 up to the 103-
105, that may be extended later as the cloud cover along the
boundary may slow its advance increasing temps further west.

Along and north of the front, SPC has a Marginal to Slight risk area
for severe storms with mainly hail/wind threat. While a low chance
for any potential tornadoes due to less shear, can`t rule out a land
spout potential for any storms along the front. CAMs shift all
activity east of the CWA by 06z-12z Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the aforementioned front/low will shift south of the
area creating best chances for storms south of the Interstate. Ample
low level moisture will create better storm chances (30-50%) for the
area as easterly flow will aid in storm production. Best instability
will lie along the front to the south, and SPC has a Marginal Risk
area in place for locales along/south of I-40. A slow wavering of
rain/storms moves east along the boundary Tuesday night, tapering
going into Wednesday.

For temps, daytime highs on Monday will range in the mid 90s
west/northwest through the lower 100s east of a line from McCook,
Nebraska southwest to Goodland, Kansas and south to Tribune, Kansas.
Cooler on Tuesday with mid 80s to lower 90s expected.

With the hot temperatures on Monday expected, areas east of a front
and associated increasing cloud cover in the northwest portion of
the CWA, will see heat indices increase into the lower and even mid
100s. The area of focus at this time is most locales along/east of
highway 83 where a Heat Advisory is now in effect.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s, giving
way to a wide range Monday night from the upper 50 to mid 60s west
into the upper 60s to lower 70s east. By Tuesday night, mid 50s west
to the mid 60s east are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Wednesday...there is medium confidence in some lingering
morning showers/possible thunderstorms generally south of the
interstate in the morning before a fairly organized weather system
moves the western 1/2 or so of the forecast area in the afternoon,
sparking a 20%-50% chance for strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms continue moving east overnight
with pops in the 40%-60% range with a continued threat for severe
weather. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to
lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Thursday...an upper level low pressure area is forecast to move east-
southeast across the northern and central plains with the flow aloft
from the west-northwest. It appears that we`ll have a weather system
move through during the overnight hours from the northwest with 20%-
40% chances for thunderstorms. A few models show a rather dry 850-
500mb layer and no qpf so later forecasts may back off on overnight
precipitation chances.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 80s to around 90 with low temperatures in the lower 50s to
lower 60s.

Friday...the forecast area should be under northwest flow aloft with
some ridging moving on to the west coast. Although we currently have
20% chances for thunderstorms across the entire area during the
night, the better chance of that could be across the southwest 1/3-
1/2 of the area as weather systems move off the Colorado front
range, moving toward the southeast. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the middle
50s to lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday...currently, we have a 20% chance for overnight
thunderstorms. They could be ongoing closer to mid to late afternoon
as a weather system moves through from the northwest. High
temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower
90s Saturday with 90 to 95 Sunday. Low temperatures in the middle
50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

IFR conditions will continue off and on at both TAF sites
through the period. Ceilings will be the main factor, fog will
sporadically impact the sites, too. The line of showers, and
storms to the south of KGLD, are progressing to the east and
dropping the ceilings to LIFR. Ceilings look to prevail into the
mid-morning and then lift before another round of showers and
storms move in from the northwest in the mid-day. As the storms
move in, winds will become lighter and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ003-004-015-016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CA