298
FXUS63 KGLD 302009
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low confidence with regard to thunderstorm development today
  through the overnight hours.

- Much cooler highs today due to cloud cover all day.

- Hot weather returns Monday behind a warm front with highs
  returning to the low 100s east of the Colorado border.

- Chances for storms each day, mainly during the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

This morning, showers and thunderstorms are continuing to move east-
northeast over Southeast Colorado and Southwest Kansas along the
northern edge of a 500 mb high. CAM guidance suggests that
during the mid morning hours (around 7-9 am) the showers and
sub-severe storms should begin to clip across the Tri-State area
as the high nudges north. This round should taper off from west
to east by the mid afternoon before another round of isolated
supercells to clusters of thunderstorms develops along and east
of the Front Range. Confidence is low to medium for severe
weather this afternoon into the evening, with the best potential
for anything severe mainly along and east of the Colorado
border. MLCAPE values are currently expected to be around
1000-1500 J/kg with decent shear of 20-30 kts. With scattered to
broken cloud cover expected to linger across much of the area
today, it will be a bit challenging for the atmosphere to
further destabilize as highs will only reach the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Hazards today, any strong to severe storms develop,
include up to quarter sized hail and thunderstorm wind gusts up
to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may pose a concern depending on storm
coverage/track as PWs sit in the 1-2" range. Should storms move
into the area later today, we should see them exit to our east-
northeast overnight. Overnight lows are expected to fall into
the 60s tonight.

A hot one is in store on Monday as the upper high sits over the
Southern Plains. Shortwave disturbances will strengthen a lee
surface trough along the Front Range while the cold front from
Saturday comes back as a warm front. Another day of marginally
decent CAPE is anticipated at 1000-2000 J/kg; however, shear is
quite low. During the afternoon and evening hours, the lee trough
will move across the area, which is when storms should begin to
develop. While there is some uncertainty with coverage, we are
looking at another day of discrete to clusters of storms that will
move east to northeast. SPC has placed majority of the area in a
marginal risk with Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties in a
slight risk. The main hazards include hail and damaging wind gusts.
As a line eventually develops over the northern half of the area,
heavy rain also becomes a concern. High temperatures tomorrow will
unfortunately bring back some triple digits for the area with
temperatures in the 90s to low 100s. Locales east of the Colorado
border could see Heat Index values up to ~105 degrees possible,
especially east of Hwy 83. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s
to lower 70s tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, show the upper ridge over the
southern portion of the country shifting more eastward and southward
as the week progresses. The arrival of a decent closed low at 500mb
that swings through the northern Plains will keep the flow aloft
mainly zonal. There will be a few weak shortwaves that interact with
weak cold fronts at the surface, that will trigger low chances for
storms potential. Overall a (20-40%) chance on Wednesday, will trend
to (30-40%) Thursday night with some lingering convection Friday
morning (20%). Next chances (20%) will occur over the evening hours
next weekend as a low tracks south over eastern Colorado. The main
concerns other than the low storm chances will be the return to near
to above normal temperatures for much of the extended.

For temps, daytime highs for the extended period will range in the
upper 80s midweek. On Thursday, mid 80s to the lower 90s are
expected, then trending lower on Friday to the lower to mid 80s.
Going into the upcoming weekend, upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday
give way to lower to mid 90s next Sunday.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s
east Wednesday through Friday, then for the weekend, upper 50s to
mid 60s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 956 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For KGLD, there will be an IFR/MVFR mix(OVC008-015) of ceilings
through at least 09z Monday before shifting to VFR for the
remainder of the forecast period. There is a chance for
thunderstorms to come near/impact the terminal, but with low
confidence on timing, have kept to VCSH and will update as
things develop. 09z-13z Monday has chance for lingering showers
with no reduction to visibility at this time. Winds, southeast
15-25kts through 13z Monday, then southwest around 20-30kts.
LLWS 09z-13z Monday 180@45kts.

For KMCK, current VFR conditions will trend to an IFR/MVFR mix
by at least 00z Monday. Some lower ceilings possible from
20z-00z. From 00z-05z Monday there is low confidence on the
potential timing for thunderstorms, so have left as VCSH for
now and update as needed. Light showers and low ceilings
expected from 05z to 16z before going VFR again. Winds,
southeast at least through 14z Monday 15-25kts, before going
more southerly from 16z onward.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ003-004-015-
     016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN