321
FXUS63 KGLD 051811
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1211 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible through the day today, severe
  storms are not expected at this time.

- Severe weather chances return for the weekend. Tomorrow could
  see severe storms develop with all hazards possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Current observations show the area remains in northwest flow aloft
with a few showers and storms trying to get going in Eastern
Colorado. These showers and storms will be the main focus as the
northwest flow allows a small wave to move through while mid levels
are forecast to be saturated or nearly saturated. As long as some
forcing moves through, showers and storms are forecast to become a
bit higher in coverage and track across the area. Rainfall amounts
would likely be below a tenth with relatively dry air near the
surface and no signs of large scale forcing to help make storms
stronger. Instabilty is also forecast to be weak with little CAPE,
but mid level lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM. As long as the showers and
storms develop, the area will then see a mix of clouds and sun with
showers and storms also mixed in. With this and the relatively
cooler air mass still in place, highs should climb to near 80 today.
If the storms and cloud cover die out early in the morning, then
temperatures may be a few degrees warmer than forecast.

Tonight, the mid-level saturation is forecast to dry out which
should allow skies to clear and keep the area clear of storms, even
with continued northwest flow. Lows are forecast to drop into the
50`s.

Tomorrow, a shortwave within the larger trough is forecast to swing
through the Northern Plains with low pressure developing along the
Front Range and western half of the area. The usual question is will
our flow predominately be from the south or southwest? The more the
flow is from the southwest, the less of the area that will see storm
chances and the farther east the dryline will be. For any area along
and ahead of the dryline, storms are forecast to fire up along the
dryline and surface convergence areas associated with the warm
front. Similar to prior events like this, any initial storms along
either boundary would have the capability to produce large hail
(potentially to around 2 inches) and a tornado. As the afternoon
goes on, storms would likely cluster and move east, becoming more of
a wind threat. Currently NW Kansas and SW Nebraska are the favored
areas to be ahead of the dryline, but this could shift during the
next 24 hours. In regards to high temperatures, the southerly flow
is forecast to bring in warmer air and allow temperatures to warm
into mid 80`s through the lower 90`s.

Tomorrow night, storms may continue through the night depending on
how much dry air moved in during the day. If more moist air remains
over the area, the low and front are forecast to not move too
quickly to the south, which would allow additional storms to
develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Current runs of the GFS and ECMWF are continuing to show a broad
amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country on
Monday that will eventually shift slowly eastward by Friday. At the
surface, the shifting of the upper ridge during the week will allow
for a ridge to set up east of the area during this time, with a
surface trough to our west. The trough does extend into the CWA
Tuesday night through Wednesday night in tandem with a weak
shortwave working through the east side of the upper ridge. This
could give a 15-20% for trw/rw during this time, otherwise dry
weather is expected. The focus for storms Tuesday night and
Wednesday will be the entire CWA, but shift to along/south of the
Interstate for Wednesday night.

With the lack of moisture during the extended period, a return to
near and above normal highs is expected area-wide as 850 temps
Tuesday will range +24c to +28c with a range by Friday around +28c
to +32c. This will be aided in part by southerly surface flow on the
non-precip days.

For temps, highs on Monday are expected to range in the upper 70s
west into the mid 80s east, but will give way to upper 80s through
the mid 90s from next Tuesday onward. Hottest day will be on Friday,
mainly east of the Colorado border. Overnight lows will have a
similar trend with mid and upper 50s Monday night give way to lower
and mid 60s by the end of the week. Warmest locales will be east
Highway 25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For KGLD, through 22z this afternoon there will be a MVFR/VFR
mix as rw/trw possible that could lower visibility to around
3-6sm, especially from 18z-19z. From 22z onward, VFR expected.
Winds, north around 10kts through 22z then light/variable. By
07z Saturday, south 10-20kts.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
There could be some light showers through 21z with no impacts
expected at this time. Winds, west-northwest around 10kts
through 02z Saturday, then light/variable. By 14z, south
10-15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN