Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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709 FXUS63 KGLD 020009 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 609 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe potential this afternoon and evening with all hazards potentially possible. - Storm chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday with severe possible. - Breezy to gusty 4th of July; albeit a bit cooler. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 With temps continuing to slowly drop via the latest hourly obs, have decided to end the Heat Advisory early. Still expect portions of Graham county to see slowly dropping temps until the precip west of there reaches this location in the next hour. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mid level troughing continues to push towards the northern Plains along with a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado. Stratus continues to be persistent across the northeast portion of the area which does bring some concerns for the Heat Advisory for Norton and Red Willow counties in particular. Will continue to leave in place as RAP does show the stratus breaking up some in the afternoon; along with the moist air mass in place will not take much diurnal heating for low to mid 100 heat indices to occur. Main focus is on thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. Warm front currently looks to be draped from roughly Chase county Nebraska down through northern Rooks county in Kansas which is the edge of the stratus deck. Continue to think this will continue to slowly lift to the north and north east. CAMS, including WOFS, have slowly been shifting westward towards the Highway 27 corridor for CI to occur this afternoon along the axis of a surface trough. Storms may struggle initially but should slowly intensify as they move into the better moisture, will need to watch for landspout potential along this boundary as well as cells develop. As these storms mature large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat as they move off towards the northeast. If a storm can become a dominant supercell from the initial round of convection and interact with the warm front a supercell tornado potential may develop but is highly conditional on multiple factors coming together. A 2nd round of convection looks to occur along the surface trough moving west to east across the area. Scattered to numerous storms looks to occur with this posing some continued severe potential; CAMS have been continuously picking up on a stronger cell with UH track roughly along the KS/NE border. If this does occur and other cells don`t impact it much then a conditional very large hail threat may occur given the 15Z RAP environment. Rainfall chances look to end around midnight MT across the area. RAP indicates some additional moisture moving through the area tonight which looks to provide another potential for stratus and fog overnight; better surface moisture and more northeasterly winds along the KS/CO border leads to believe that area will have the relative better potential for at least patchy fog development. RAP keeps stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area for the majority of the day tomorrow along with fairly high 700mb moisture which makes me thinks clouds will play more of a role on high temperatures for the day Tuesday so have lowered temperatures down about 5 degrees across the area resulting in highs in the 80s. Another, conditional severe threat looks to be in place across the area tomorrow afternoon. A boundary and some weak omega looks to be in place from roughly Norton county down through Greeley county; however RAP soundings show a mid level CAP in place which would hinder storm development; also do have concerns about how much instability will be in place especially if the cloud cover does continue to hold. If a storm where to break the CAP then an all hazards scenario would be on the table. Tuesday night additional 700-500mb mid level moisture looks to work in from the south bringing additional chances for showers and storms overnight mainly along and south of Interstate 70. With drier air in place initially the low temperature may occur early on in the evening/night before steadily rising as the increase in moisture occurs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Active pattern looks to continue to start the period as well with another surface trough moving through the area. A dry line looks to be set up across northern Colorado back towards the Front Range which will be the main focus for initiation. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong winds looks to be the primary threat as storms develop. At this time, storms look to eventually grow upscale into a potential MCS moving to the ESE based on the current forecasted 700mb steering wind as wind becomes the main concern. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area. 4th of July, another surface trough will move through the area associated with a deepening low pressure system across the northern Plains. At this time, not seeing any clear signs for rainfall, but the main story for any fireworks may be breezy winds around 30-40 mph across the area. Pattern recognition also does support the potential for breezy to gusty winds as well. A cooler, rain cooled air mass from the northern Plains looks to be advected into the area with high temperatures in the 80s for the holiday. Late week and into the weekend, ridging looks to develop across the western CONUS with a large surface high encompassing most of the southern CONUS. This will open the area up to additional rain chances with any disturbance that slides down the eastern periphery of the ridge. Continued daily chances for showers and storms looks to occur through at least early next week as western ridge begins to slowly move to the east. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 419 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions for the forecast period. Some VCTS is possible through 03z Tuesday, as well as 6sm BR possible from 08z-14z Tuesday. Winds, southwest 10-15kts through 03z, then shifting southeast. By 08z Tuesday, becoming northerly 10-20kts. For KMCK, mixed conditions are expected through the forecast period. First from 00z-03z 6sm in TSRA w/ some hail potential. VCTS overnight from 03z-12z. From 12z-20z, BKN005-015 ceilings, then VFR by 20z. Winds, east-northeast 10-15kts then shifting northerly around 10kts. By 15z Tuesday, northeast 10-15kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...99/Trigg AVIATION...JN