Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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412 FXUS63 KGLD 301646 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1046 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low confidence with regard to thunderstorm development today through the overnight hours. - Much cooler highs today due to cloud cover all day. - Hot weather returns Monday behind a warm front with highs returning to the low 100s east of the Colorado border. - Chances for storms each day, mainly during the evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Update to going forecast to add in a few hours of patchy fog in the Burlington CO area based on local obs/CDOT webcams. Also adjusted pops in the east to account for the slow moving shower activity, especially in Graham and Norton counties. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 This morning, showers and thunderstorms are continuing to move east- northeast over Southeast Colorado and Southwest Kansas along the northern edge of a 500 mb high. CAM guidance suggests that during the mid morning hours (around 7-9 am) the showers and sub-severe storms should begin to clip across the Tri-State area as the high nudges north. This round should taper off from west to east by the mid afternoon before another round of isolated supercells to clusters of thunderstorms develops along and east of the Front Range. Confidence is low to medium for severe weather this afternoon into the evening, with the best potential for anything severe mainly along and east of the Colorado border. MLCAPE values are currently expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg with decent shear of 20-30 kts. With scattered to broken cloud cover expected to linger across much of the area today, it will be a bit challenging for the atmosphere to further destabilize as highs will only reach the mid 70s to lower 80s. Hazards today, any strong to severe storms develop, include up to quarter sized hail and thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may pose a concern depending on storm coverage/track as PWs sit in the 1-2" range. Should storms move into the area later today, we should see them exit to our east- northeast overnight. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 60s tonight. A hot one is in store on Monday as the upper high sits over the Southern Plains. Shortwave disturbances will strengthen a lee surface trough along the Front Range while the cold front from Saturday comes back as a warm front. Another day of marginally decent CAPE is anticipated at 1000-2000 J/kg; however, shear is quite low. During the afternoon and evening hours, the lee trough will move across the area, which is when storms should begin to develop. While there is some uncertainty with coverage, we are looking at another day of discrete to clusters of storms that will move east to northeast. SPC has placed majority of the area in a marginal risk with Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties in a slight risk. The main hazards include hail and damaging wind gusts. As a line eventually develops over the northern half of the area, heavy rain also becomes a concern. High temperatures tomorrow will unfortunately bring back some triple digits for the area with temperatures in the 90s to low 100s. Locales east of the Colorado border could see Heat Index values up to ~105 degrees possible, especially east of Hwy 83. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s to lower 70s tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Tuesday...the forecast area will be in between an upper level trough moving through the area with an upper level ridge centered over the southeast United States. Moisture, mainly in the 700-300mb layer will move across the area from the southwest during the day then west-southwest during the night. PWAT values of 1-1.7" during the day slowly decrease into the 0.9-1.3" range overnight. It appears we`ll have just a 20% chance for thunderstorms across parts of far eastern Colorado in the afternoon with a 30%-50% chance overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wednesday...there is fairly good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models in bringing a weather system through the area from the west during the typical mid to late afternoon hours through much of the overnight hours. Presently, we have 20%-30% chances for afternoon thunderstorms, peaking in the 30%-50% range during the evening before decreasing from west to east. With evening GFS PWAT values of 0.70-1.0" and storm motions of 25 to 30 mph, the threat for excessive rainfall should be rather low. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Thursday...an upper level low pressure area is forecast to move east- southeast across the northern and central plains with the flow aloft from the west-northwest. It appears that we`ll have a weather system move through during the overnight hours from the northwest with 30%- 40% chances for thunderstorms. GFS PWAT values arent terribly high in the 0.8-1.1" range with storm motions generally around 25 to 30 mph. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Friday...the forecast area should be under northwest flow aloft with some ridging moving on to the west coast. Although we currently have 20% chances for thunderstorms across the entire area during the night, the better chance of that could be across the southwest 1/3- 1/2 of the area as weather systems move off the Colorado front range, moving toward the southeast. With PWAT values around 0.80" across the entire area, only light amounts of rainfall are possible. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures support high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 55 to 60 degree range. Saturday...currently, we have a 20% chance for overnight thunderstorms. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 956 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For KGLD, there will be an IFR/MVFR mix(OVC008-015) of ceilings through at least 09z Monday before shifting to VFR for the remainder of the forecast period. There is a chance for thunderstorms to come near/impact the terminal, but with low confidence on timing, have kept to VCSH and will update as things develop. 09z-13z Monday has chance for lingering showers with no reduction to visibility at this time. Winds, southeast 15-25kts through 13z Monday, then southwest around 20-30kts. LLWS 09z-13z Monday 180@45kts. For KMCK, current VFR conditions will trend to an IFR/MVFR mix by at least 00z Monday. Some lower ceilings possible from 20z-00z. From 00z-05z Monday there is low confidence on the potential timing for thunderstorms, so have left as VCSH for now and update as needed. Light showers and low ceilings expected from 05z to 16z before going VFR again. Winds, southeast at least through 14z Monday 15-25kts, before going more southerly from 16z onward. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JN