193
FXUS63 KGLD 050456
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1056 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday on into the upcoming
  weekend.

- There will be scattered chances for storms next week for a
  few days, especially during the latter portion of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as a
strong surface ridge is currently stretched over the area. Temps as
of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds are
continuing from a northerly direction w/ gusts into the 25-30 mph
range through the day.

Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on thunderstorm
chances around the area. Currently, the area lies under NW flow
aloft with an amplified 500 mb ridge set up over the western portion
of the country.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, high pressure will
remain intact for much of the CWA, providing a nice cool and dry
period. CAMs do hint at a 15-20% chance for a few rw/trw to develop
over northeast Colorado, dissipating by Friday morning. A weak
500/700mb shortwave will create some weak instability giving some
elevated shower potential, but nothing of any impact.

The latest GFS/NAM do differ from Friday onward in terms of areal
coverage of precip. The focus will be a developing low/trough over
eastern Colorado Friday afternoon. This system will meander into the
CWA Friday night into Saturday. This system will drift over the
southern CWA and eventually redevelop west again by Sunday. This
will allow for at least 20-50% chances for rw/trw. Highest probs
will have the eastern CWA in the zone. The ample low level moisture
on S/SE flow this weekend will aid in trw chances. Instability on
Saturday afternoon/evening from the latest model soundings has DCape
around 1300-1400j/kg, MLCape around 1500-1600j/kg and SBCape 2300-
2400j/kg. This is from the latest NAM run around 18z Saturday-00z
Sunday. As a result, SPC carries a Marginal Risk for severe on
Saturday for the CWA. Similar chances occur for Sunday, but no
outlook at this time.

For temps, highs on Friday will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going
into this weekend, Saturday will have a range from the mid 80s into
the lower 90s, followed by a cooler day on Sunday with upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Overnight lows for tonight will range in the 50s, with warmest
locales east of Highway 25. Slightly warmer Friday and Saturday
nights with mid 50s west to around 60F in eastern locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, a strong amplified 500mb
ridge sits over the western portion of the country Sunday night with
a slow movement eastward towards the central Rockies by mid to late
week. This will allow a northwest flow aloft to transition slowly to
weakening winds as the dome of high pressure begins to exert
influence into the central Plains. There will be a few weak
shortwaves that will work southward along the eastern side of the
ridge, impacting portions of the area.

At the surface, high pressure pushing south into the region will
push up against a frontal boundary and associated surface low in SE
Colorado. Will continue to see 20-40% chances for rw/trw to impact
mainly areas south of the Interstate. Models do differ on the
position of the building ridge creating some uncertainty as to the
areal coverage of pops in the CWA. So will continue the 20-30%
chances for northern areas.

High pressure in place for Monday and Monday night providing the
region with a dry yet warm day. By Tuesday, the next shortwave will
interact with southerly flow over the area as low pressure sets up
over the Front Range. Weak instability ahead of the low will trigger
a 20% chance for rw/trw, but expands eastward during the evening
hours as the low moves into the CWA.

This low will meander over Kansas going into Wednesday as high
pressure builds south once again. Moisture around the vicinity of
the low and front remnants will bring a 20% chance to the area by
Wednesday evening, giving way to a hot day by thursday as high
pressure settles over the area.

For temps, going into the beginning of next week, Monday`s highs
will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going into Tuesday and
Wednesday, upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. By next Thursday, a
bit hotter with lower to mid 90s expected.

Overnight lows will see a slight warming trend as well as next week
progresses. Sunday night will have a range in the 50s, warmest east.
Upper 50s to lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday nights. Wednesday
night has a range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, followed by lower
to mid 60s for next Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Both terminals (KGLD/KMCK) will see VFR conditions through the
forecast periods. Winds will shift variably from the northeast
to the northwest from through 12z for both terminals. After
12Z, winds should remain light out of the northwest for the
remainder of the period. Latest guidance suggests some shower
and sub-severe storm development from issuance to 22Z Friday
afternoon. Should these develop, it would primarily impact the
KMCK terminal. AMDs will be made as needed should current
coverage increase.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KMK