608
FNUS75 KGJT 141831
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Babylon...Manti La Sal NF
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1231 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Mid level moisture is working its way back into southeastern Utah,
which will allow afternoon storms to flourish off high terrain. Dry
and warm conditions at low levels will minimize the chance for
measurable rain over the fire but, in turn, increases concerns for
gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning from nearby convection.
Thus, the wildfire and surrounding terrain remain in a Red Flag
Warning for dry thunderstorms through this evening. A similar setup
is in store for Monday afternoon, with additional showers and storms
rotating around the high overhead.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....82-87.
Min humidity........14-19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................3 until 1500, then 4 until 1700, then 3.
Mixing height.......12700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 mph.
Clearing Index......1040.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....60-65.
Max humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 3 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2 until 2300, then 1.
Mixing height.......9100 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 mph.
Clearing Index......730 decreasing to 50 overnight.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....80-85.
Min humidity........16-21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 3 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 mph.
Clearing Index......740.

$$
Forecaster...Erin Walter
Requested by...Jodi Wetzstein
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417886.5/GJT
.DELDT 07/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jodi_wetzstein@firenet.gov