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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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279 FXUS65 KGJT 292140 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 340 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado is in place through Monday afternoon. Abundant monsoonal moisture is expected to produce heavy rainfall rates and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. - Monsoonal moisture gets shunted east on Tuesday, and afternoon showers will be far more isolated in nature. - A drying trend develops later in the week in time for Fourth of July activities. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 324 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Clear skies this morning quickly eroded the capping inversion on the Grand Junction morning sounding. Pockets of monsoonal moisture continue to arrive, despite a `downturn` in moisture today. This has culminated in widespread convection on our terrain with southward exposure, including the Tavaputs, San Juans and Uncompahgre Plateau. Storms have, thus far, been garden variety monsoon storms. Some small hail, gusty outflows, and lightning will still pose weather risks to those outside this afternoon and evening. Precipitation rates remain low too, so flash flooding is off the table for now. Unfortunately, that changes Sunday with the arrival of another rich plume of moisture. Have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for our southern counties including southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, where the deepest moisture will create favorable conditions for flash flooding Sunday and Monday. Flooding concerns will remain heavily localized under the deepest convection. Outdoor enthusiasts and travelers are expected to keep up with local forecasts and real- time conditions in flood prone areas Sunday afternoon through Monday. While PWAT values have remained above normal today, by this evening, a plume of 200 percent of normal PWAT begins to invade the Four Corners and spreads across the southern half of the CWA and remains there through Monday. An open wave coming ashore tonight is expected to tighten the pressure gradient and should keep breezy conditions in place overnight. This should serve to keep us rather mixed and likely keep inversions on the minimal side. With minimal capping in place Sunday, I expect convective initiation to engage early. Showers should be well fueled by then and have no problem dropping some generous rainfall across the region. Favored areas for heavy rainfall remain mostly south of I-70 and along the Divide to the north. Flash flood concerns include flood prone areas of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Low temperatures tonight will remain on the high side in the well mixed regime, while Sunday afternoon highs will get knocked down with cloud cover and rainshowers in most locales. A few desert valleys will likely surge up, if they avoid the cloud cover of surrounding terrain-based thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 324 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Convection will be ongoing Sunday evening as plentiful moisture will continue to be worked on by an approaching upper level trough. The high pressure over eastern Texas will continue to pump in monsoonal moisture as guidance suggests a wave rotating around the high. This wave, as of now, is progged to move through the area from southwest to northeast from 6PM through just after midnight. A secondary wave will be moving across Arizona and will get pulled into our CWA as the approaching trough moves through. This will get another round of precip going and possibly continuing through the day Monday. The NAMNEST does show a line of stronger showers and storms moving across the region from roughly 3AM through 10AM Monday morning with a second line of weaker convection moving shortly after the first push. Then another line associated with the trough moves in from the northeast Monday afternoon. Looks busy. Important to note that there should be plenty of cloud cover from the overnight rain and it may temper the strength of convection on Monday though we`ll still have to deal with heavy rain. PWATs are forecast to be around 1 inch across most of the CWA so flash flooding will certainly be a possibility under and near the stronger convection or if any training occurs. PWATs are expected to start dropping on Tuesday but models always bring in this drier air too fast so look for convection, firing off the higher terrain with the usual hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain being possible. The NBM is downplaying the extent of convection but do expect PoPs to increase as short range models get their hands on this period. Midweek onwards, an area of high pressure builds in from the West Coast and shunts the plume of moisture to the east. As the high continues to build in, anticyclonic flow will then bring northerly winds to the CWA and keep moisture over Arizona and New Mexico. A passing trough may clip our CWA and bring some isolated convection to the Divide on Saturday but coverage is minimal at best. Clouds and precip will determine temperatures through the long term period. As of now, MOS guidance is showing most areas hovering near normal or reaching 5 degrees above more seasonal early July values. Again, more cloud cover/precip will limit those daytime highs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon. Any showers and storms that form will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain. Following HRRR guidance, included VCTS or -TSRA on station for many TAF sites. Will amend as necessary as the afternoon continues. Brief MVFR is possible under and near any of the stronger showers or cells with widespread VFR expected. ILS breakpoints may also be met near the stronger convection. Activity will diminish, though probably not completely end, after sunset. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Abundant monsoonal moisture returns Sunday through Monday and is expected to produce heavy rainfall rates. Flood Watches are in place for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado Sunday and Monday. Flooding is expected to be heavily localized under stronger thunderstorms. Slick rock areas, slot canyons, and burn scars are at greatest risk for flooding, but urban flooding is also a concern. Be sure to monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued for your area! && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for COZ009-011-012-014-017>023. UT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for UTZ022-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT Hydrology...TGJT