846
FXUS65 KGJT 022030
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
230 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the
  Continental Divide this afternoon.

- This drier regime brings the return of critical fire weather
  conditions across northern portions of Colorado and Utah on
  Wednesday.

- Dry and warm conditions persist through the Holiday weekend
  and likely into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Dry air is filtering into the region under northwest flow aloft.
Lapse rates are steep behind the departing system and that combined
with suborn moisture in the mountains could result in isolated
showers this afternoon. The highest chances will be the central and
southern mountains, but not much rain is expected. By sunset any
active showers are expected to dissipate. Tomorrow another shortwave
tracks over the Northern Rockies and it`s associated jet noses
overhead. Deeper mixing tomorrow afternoon will tap into these winds
and allow them to reach the surface. Areas along and north of I-70
as well as the mountains could see wind gusts up to 30 mph. The dry
air will result in minimum RH values dropping into the teens and
single digits across the western half of the CWA. Despite all of the
recent rain some fuels are still deemed critical. Where these fuels
coincide with the dry/windy conditions there is a Fire Watch in
effect. Based on the hot dry windy index these conditions are
marginal in the Colorado zones, with higher values in the eastern
Uinta Basin. Would like the overnight shift to have one more look at
the wind forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Independence Day revelers will have plenty of sunshine to bask in
Thursday. The amplifying ridge over the West will continue to push
dry air in and fight back any threat of monsoon moisture`s return.
Afternoon highs Thursday and Friday will stick around the
climatological normal mark for the region. Coupled with low relative
humidities in the new air mass, the start of the holiday weekend
looks pretty mild. Saturday and Sunday will see afternoon highs
start to tick back up as the sturdy ridge to our west encroaches on
the CWA. Triple digits in our desert valleys should quickly return,
while overnight lows will remain nice thanks to the persistent low
dewpoints. Attention turns to the future of Hurricane Beryl early
next week. Models are pushing remnant moisture from the storm back
into the Southwest early Tuesday morning. This turns into a very
tentative forecast at this point, but worth noting as it looks like
the next opportunity for some active weather here on the West Slope.
For now, it looks like Tuesday afternoon could see some showers make
their way into our southern counties. Again, this is contingent on
the outcome of Beryl`s landfall location, a very tentative forecast.
In the meantime, we will lick our wounds a bit more after a very wet
June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected at terminals through the TAF period.
Winds will pick up this afternoon from the west to northwest at
around 15-20 mph and then subside towards sunset. A few
scattered mid level clouds will clear out eventually this
evening. There is a small chance for some showers to form on the
Continental Divide this afternoon, but they should be short
lived in this drier airmass.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Dry air has filtered into the area due to a shift in the pattern. A
system passing over the Northern Rockies will bring wind gusts up to
30 mph in spots tomorrow. Despite the recent rain some locations
still have critical fuels. Where these conditions overlap a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect tomorrow. Confidence in this marginal set
up is not high enough to upgrade the watch. Winds decrease on
Thursday and stay relatively low through the weekend. Conditions
remain dry as high pressure to our west stays locked in place.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for COZ200-202.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...KJS