984
FXUS63 KGID 022345
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
  and evening across portions of the Hastings County Warning
  Area.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
  evening, with hail and wind being the main concerns. Areas
  that have received a few inches of rain over the past few
  days, may have some issues with flooding.

- Independence Day starts off with chances for showers and
  storms, with conditions clearing in time for fireworks.

- A pattern change will occur over the weekend and into the
  start of next week, bringing daily chances of rain to at least
  a portion of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

With clearing skies and the threat for shower and thunderstorm
activity diminishing across the area this evening, went ahead an
updated weather grids to reduce thunderstorm chances as well as
introduce a bit of fog towards morning as with clear skies,
elevated dewpoints and light winds, some models are keying in on
the potential for fog. Otherwise, no additional changes made to
previous forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Surface observations have temperatures ranging from the mid-70s in
south central Nebraska and low 80s in north central Kansas. A cold
front has moved across much of the area which should help limit the
potential for severe weather across much of the area.  The best
chance for any strong to severe storms would be mainly in our Kansas
counties, with hail and wind being the main concerns with any storms
that are able to develop.  A few additional showers and storms may
be possible across other parts of the area this afternoon and
evening.  Locally heavy rainfall over areas that have already
received a few inches of rain over the last few days could result in
some localized flooding.

Wednesday, a broad upper trough extending west to east from the
PACNW to the Great Lakes will enter the region.  A disturbance will
move through the area, bringing chances for periodic showers and
thunderstorms during the daytime hours across north central Kansas,
and additional chances (40-70%) in the evening.  A few storms could
become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters and 60 MPH
winds being the main concerns.  An isolated tornado can`t be
entirely ruled out.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the
entire Hastings County Warning Area in either a Marginal Risk (1
of 5) or a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather for
Wednesday. Additionally, some locations could receive at least
an additional half inch to inch or more of precipitation with
storms moving through. For areas that have already received a
few inches of rain over the past few days, this could cause some
flooding concerns. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the
eastern and southern portions of our area under a Marginal Risk
(1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

Thursday, the upper trough sags southward over the area.
Temperatures are expected to be pleasant, with highs ranging from
the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.   There
are some chances for showers and storms through the daytime hours
(20-50% morning/10-40% afternoon), with things clearing out west to
east by the time fireworks are expected to be set off.

Zonal flow sets up over the area on Friday, with dry conditions
expected to continue.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s.  Heading
into the weekend and the extended forecast, the pattern changes,
with daily chances for a few low-end precipitation opportunities.
Highs will be primarily in the 80s each day, with 50s and 60s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both terminals with
the MVFR CIGS that were reported at KGRI last hour expected to
be fully eroded by 03/00Z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and
light winds are anticipated overnight, with a few increasing
clouds from the southwest towards daybreak as the next
disturbance mainly impacts north central Kansas. While there
will be a few clouds around, could see some patchy fog
development around daybreak, but confidence not overly high, so
did not include a mention in 00Z TAFs. Winds should eventually
increase to around 10 KTS out of the south by late morning, with
another disturbance expected to bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms to the terminals Wednesday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Rossi