Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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028 FXUS63 KGID 271724 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/thunderstorms move across the area this morning. - Strong to severe storms possible this evening-overnight as storms move in from the west. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible with these storms. - Warmer on Friday with strong to severe storms possible during the evening-overnight hours. - Cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s and dry weather expected during the daytime hours. - Warmer and active weather next week, with highs in the 80s and 90s and scattered chances (25-50%) for precipitation each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving into western portions of the area as of 4:15AM. These showers/storms will continue to gradually moving east through the morning hours. Rain is expected to exit western portions of the area by the late morning hours, and exit eastern portions of the area during the afternoon. Lingering cloud coverage behind the rain will help to keep temperatures below normal (mid 80s to low 90s) today. Highs today will range from the upper 70s across northeastern portions of the area to the mid 80s across southwestern portions of the area. Winds will be breezy today, with southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and trek east into the area this evening. While initially discrete, storms are expected to develop into clusters/lines over time. Instability will build over the area, with 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE by the evening. Instability combined with 35-40kts of shear will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms that are able to remain discrete will carry a potential for large hail, with clusters/lines having the potential to producing damaging wind gusts. Storms will weaken as they move further east across the area as instability begins to decrease. Friday... Any remaining showers from storms overnight are expected to quickly exit eastern portions of the area Friday morning. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday, as highs climb into the 80s (north) and 90s (south). A cold front will move through the area on Friday, with winds becoming northerly behind the front. Thunderstorm chances return to the area Friday afternoon. Some scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the cold front Friday afternoon, though CAMs are fairly pessimistic on these storms developing. Higher confidence exists in thunderstorms Friday evening as storms that develop over the panhandle of Nebraska move into the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with 2000-2500 J/Kg of CAPE and 35-40kts of shear. A mix of clusters and discrete cells are possible with these storms. The main concerns with these storms are for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storms would continue across the area Friday night and come to an end by sunrise on Saturday. Saturday and Sunday... Pleasant weather is in store for this weekend behind the cold frontal passage. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies during the daytime hours. A few scattered chances for thunderstorms exist during the late evening to overnight hours. Next week... Warmer and active weather returns next week as an approaching trough moves over the Rockies. A series of shortwaves will move across the area next week, bringing scattered, on and off chances (25-50%) for precipitation to the area each day. Highs next week will return to the upper 80s and 90s, with the potential for highs in the 100s on Monday across portions of north central Kansas. Model consensus begins to break down towards the end of next week, with the ECMWF showing broad troughing over the area, and the GFS having a ridge building over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 This evening an un upper level disturbance will move off the Rockies and give the region a line of scattered convection from SD to KS. The HRRR brings a small cluster storms across I-80 this evening, so went with -SHRA/VCTS in the TAFs using HRRR timing. A SFC low will move out of the Rockies tomorrow morning and I don`t have the highest confidence in -SHRA coverage or timing for precip mid morning tomorrow, but felt a mention was warranted for the potential to see something around the area. Southerly Winds will be gusty today and will taper off overnight and will become SW-NW as the cold front moves across the TAF sites. Around the area seeing some MVFR ceilings, will go FEW for now as none of the guidance has it for the TAF sites at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Beda