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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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532 FXUS63 KGID 022107 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Hastings County Warning Area. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday evening, with hail and wind being the main concerns. Areas that have received a few inches of rain over the past few days, may have some issues with flooding. - Independence Day starts off with chances for showers and storms, with conditions clearing in time for fireworks. - A pattern change will occur over the weekend and into the start of next week, bringing daily chances of rain to at least a portion of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Surface observations have temperatures ranging from the mid-70s in south central Nebraska and low 80s in north central Kansas. A cold front has moved across much of the area which should help limit the potential for severe weather across much of the area. The best chance for any strong to severe storms would be mainly in our Kansas counties, with hail and wind being the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. A few additional showers and storms may be possible across other parts of the area this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall over areas that have already received a few inches of rain over the last few days could result in some localized flooding. Wednesday, a broad upper trough extending west to east from the PACNW to the Great Lakes will enter the region. A disturbance will move through the area, bringing chances for periodic showers and thunderstorms during the daytime hours across north central Kansas, and additional chances (40-70%) in the evening. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters and 60 MPH winds being the main concerns. An isolated tornado can`t be entirely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Hastings County Warning Area in either a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) or a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather for Wednesday. Additionally, some locations could receive at least an additional half inch to inch or more of precipitation with storms moving through. For areas that have already received a few inches of rain over the past few days, this could cause some flooding concerns. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the eastern and southern portions of our area under a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Thursday, the upper trough sags southward over the area. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows in the mid-50s to low 60s. There are some chances for showers and storms through the daytime hours (20-50% morning/10-40% afternoon), with things clearing out west to east by the time fireworks are expected to be set off. Zonal flow sets up over the area on Friday, with dry conditions expected to continue. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Heading into the weekend and the extended forecast, the pattern changes, with daily chances for a few low-end precipitation opportunities. Highs will be primarily in the 80s each day, with 50s and 60s for lows. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Low clouds should scatter out mid-day looking at upstream obs. Hit and miss MVFR ceilings are moving through the area, so will have to keep watch and see if a TEMPO will be needed for the next couple of hours. The biggest uncertainty will be FG formation tomorrow morning. Leaning towards patchy right now as SFC winds will have a WSW direction, which is normally a drying wind for the TAF sites. Cirrus aloft may also play a small roll in hindering FG formation tomorrow morning. The winds look to gust into the teens this afternoon before tapering off this evening as a SFC high settles into the area. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Beda