724
FXUS63 KGID 050531
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Great conditions are expected for tonight`s firework shows
  with clear skies and 10 PM temperatures in the mid 60s to
  around 70.

- Below normal July temperatures (Highs 77-85) are expected to
  persist into at least early next week before we get closer to
  normal temperatures by next Wednesday/Thursday (Highs 86-91).

- The next chance for rain will be Friday night (20%) into
  Saturday (50-60%) and Sunday (30-50%). There will be a severe
  weather threat primarily on Saturday. Monday and Tuesday
  continue to appear dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

This Evening...
Unlike last night, all firework shows are in good shape tonight
with dry weather expected across the entire forecast area.
Evening conditions between 9 PM and Midnight will feature clear
skies, light northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, temperatures
falling from around 70 into the middle 60s.


Friday...
We expect another beautiful day with highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s with a dry pleasant northwesterly wind at 10 to 15
mph. Most forecast models are dry, but the 12Z HRRR develops
some isolated general thunderstorms across our far
western/southwestern zones during the evening hours. Will stick
with the majority of the model members for now and keep Friday
evening dry, but can not rule out having to possibly add some
isolated thunderstorms to the forecast in our west.


Friday Night through Saturday Night (T-Storm Chances)...
We have a persistent upper trough situated over the north
central United States with little short waves rotating through
bringing periodic chances for thunderstorms. The next decent
short wave will rotate through our forecast area mainly during
the day on Saturday into Saturday night. This currently appears
to be our best chance for more widespread appreciable showers
and thunderstorms. The wind shear will be pretty decent for this
time of year with a 50-60 KT jet stream over our area and thus
with typical July instability we should also see at least a
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms. Would not be surprised
if this SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area gets upgraded as we get
closer, something worth keeping an eye on.


Sunday (T-Storm Chances)...
We will still have the upper trough in our area, but difficult
to say where the surface front will be after outflows from
Saturday`s convection. Models currently favor our southeastern
zones for thunderstorms on Sunday, but with lower levels of
confidence than on Saturday.


Monday through Wednesday...
Upper trough slides a little further east and covers much of the
north central and northeastern United States while an upper
level ridge begins to build across the western United States.
Overall northwesterly flow aloft will keep bringing periodic
chances for thunderstorms and temperatures that are below normal
to near normal for this time of year. For now we have dry
conditions Monday and Tuesday with the next little wave coming
by around Tuesday night, but confidence in shortwave timing
this far out, in this pattern, is rather low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become northwesterly and will strengthen by 18z then become
light and variable around 03z Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Schuldt