086
FXUS65 KGGW 020759
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
159 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday.

2) The most frequent storms will be Wednesday and Thursday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cyclonic flow around a broad western Canadian upper trough will
keep the hot Pacific ridge to the west through the weekend. As
frequent shortwaves round the trough and push through the mildly
unstable airmass over the northern Plains, expected daily
potential for showers and thunderstorms. At this point, the
strongest of these shortwave troughs will slide through northeast
Montana on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

With the ridge to the west, temperatures will either be near
normal or slightly below this week. As the ridge pushes east early
next week, expect warming temperatures.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is low on timing any specific rounds of precipitation
this week. Wednesday afternoon (50% SE to 90% NW) and Thursday
afternoon (60% SW to 80% North and East) have the best chances
for precipitation at this point. With the general instability,
thunderstorms are possible, but the potential for strong or severe
storms remains low. Expect precipitation amounts to be highly
variable, but generally less than 0.10" outside of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR most of the time. Areas of MVFR this morning NE.

DISCUSSION: There will be varying amounts of low and mid level
clouds this morning and mid level clouds mixed with daytime
cumulus this afternoon. Some low clouds will bring MVFR CIGS to
the NE corner of the state this morning. There will be chances
for showers and thunderstorms at times mainly this afternoon and
this evening. Look for VFR conditions except when a shower or
thunderstorm could bring brief MVFR conditions.

WIND: West to NW 5 to 15 knots early becoming NW 10 to 20 knots by
late morning. Winds will become west 5 to 10 knots tonight.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow