780
FXUS65 KGGW 022030
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
230 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Unsettled weather conditions are expected at times this week
with frequent chances for thunderstorms. The steadiest and most
widespread rainfall will be Wednesday into Thursday.

2) Upper ridging is expected to guide hot and dry weather
conditions across the region next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper level low will continue to the east while NE Montana
remains situated under the influence of upper level northwest
flow. Expect daily chances for thunderstorms this week, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Over the short term, while
CAPE over the area indicates some instability, a low shear
environment will make conditions unfavorable for any sustained
updraft. Thus, ordinary cell convection and a general thunderstorm
regime are supported.

Ensembles show growing support for a large upper level ridge
developing over the western CONUS Next week. This will lead to dry
and hot weather conditions for the middle of July.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

While confidence is low on precise timing and placement of any
thunderstorms, confidence is high on an overall active weather
pattern remaining in place this week with growing confidence on
hot and dry weather next week. NBM was largely followed which
captured expected trends rather well.


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR most of the time. Areas of MVFR this morning NE.

DISCUSSION: There will be varying amounts of low and mid level
clouds this morning and mid level clouds mixed with daytime
cumulus this afternoon. Some low clouds will bring MVFR CIGS to
the NE corner of the state this morning. There will be chances
for showers and thunderstorms at times mainly this afternoon and
this evening. Look for VFR conditions except when a shower or
thunderstorm could bring brief MVFR conditions.

WIND: West to NW 5 to 15 knots early becoming NW 10 to 20 knots by
late morning. Winds will become west 5 to 10 knots tonight.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow