367
FXUS65 KGGW 290842
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
242 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Dry conditions prevail with a warming trend until Sunday
afternoon.

2) A more unsettled pattern returns late this weekend and lasts into
much of next week, with severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday
evening.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The gusty winds and shower activity has diminished with low
pressure exiting across North Dakota. Today`s cooler than normal
temperatures will be brief and surface winds will switch to the
southeast bringing a return to seasonable warmth on Sunday.

Moisture and temperature advection ahead of the next shortwave
trough will prime the atmosphere up for another severe weather
event by Sunday night aided by a nocturnal low-level jet.
Although temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s
south of Highway 2, capping will be featured for most of the
afternoon based on CAMs such as NAM Nest and HRW FV3. The
southernmost portion of the CWA will have the best opportunity to
break this cap in the early evening, as severe winds and hail will
be possible with the strongest storms.

Active weather is expected to remain overhead each day of the
work week following the severe weather on Sunday, although
confidence remains low on timing and strength of the storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There remains high (80 percent) confidence of thunderstorms
occurring Sunday evening, with low to medium (20 to 40 percent)
confidence on severe weather occurring at any one location.

-Zanker/Stoinskers

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR.

DISCUSSION: There is high (80%) confidence for lingering MVFR
ceilings to lift or become a scattered layer by 18Z, with quiet
conditions otherwise through Sunday morning.

WINDS: Light and variable, becoming SE around 10 knots after 00Z.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow