038
FXUS64 KFWD 280750
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
250 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
/Through Saturday/

Dangerously hot conditions are expected across North and Central
Texas both this afternoon and once again tomorrow afternoon. As
the high pressure center becomes established atop our region,
temperatures are expected to be 3-5 degrees warmer compared to
yesterday afternoon. The slightly warmer temperatures, coupled
with moderate humidity once again this afternoon, will make for
yet another uncomfortable afternoon outdoors. Heat index values
will range from around 105 to 112.

The early morning guidance has increased the probability to ~70%
that some areas along and North of I-20 will reach heat index
values of at least 110 degrees. An Excessive Heat Warning is
likely to be issued in the coming hours to account for this trend.
Those across the region, but especially in North Texas, should
plan accordingly to prevent any heat related illnesses. This
includes wearing light-colored clothing, drinking plenty of water
and staying indoors as much as possible.

Tonight, temperatures will continue to be above average as
widespread mid to upper 70s are expected. The immediate
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is likely to remain in the lower 80s
tonight.

Tomorrow, another hot day is in store with widespread triple
digits once again. The dangerously hot heat index values will once
again develop with the Excessive Heat Warning likely extended
through Saturday evening.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended
period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week.
The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms
develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may
skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on
how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free
weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid
90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s
to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity
should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently
seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across
most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing
advisory can be expected for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Southeasterly winds and VFR is ongoing across North and Central
Texas at this time. This will continue through the rest of today
as high pressure settles across our region. Winds will become more
southerly by this afternoon, remaining generally below 15 knots.
There will be a slightly better moisture surge tonight with an
increasing potential for MVFR by Saturday morning. Given this is
still beyond 24 hours out, we`ll continue to monitor with
potential inclusion of ceilings in the next TAF issuance.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  81  99  81  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                99  78  98  77  96 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               95  78  96  78  94 /   0   0   0   5  30
Denton             101  80 100  79  99 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            99  80  99  79  97 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas             101  80 100  81  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             97  78  97  78  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           99  80  98  78  97 /   5   0   5   0   5
Temple              99  78  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      101  78 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$