401
FXUS64 KFWD 302013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
313 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Hot weather will continue for the next couple days as large scale
subsidence under an anomalously strong mid-level high height
center dominates. The past few days we`ve had a high pressure
system over East Texas/Louisiana that promoted southerly flow and
kept dew points in the low to mid 70s. The high has elongated
along the Gulf Coast, resulting in light surface flow over our
region and weakening the influx of moisture. While the airmass
will remain humid...deep mixing should result in a subtle daily
reduction in dew point during peak heating. That`s the good news.
The bad news is that the mid-level high will build and the low-
level flow will veer, resulting in higher temperatures each
afternoon for the next couple days. The net result will be a
continuation of heat index values in the 105-112 range for most
of the area. We will need to extend the Heat Advisory through
Monday and may issue an Excessive Heat Warning across northeast
Texas. The exception will be across parts of Western Central
Texas (roughly west of I-35 and south of I-20) where the heat
index will be within 1-2 degrees of the ambient temperature and
there won`t be a need for additional heat products.

A cold front did move into southern Oklahoma this morning that is
helping develop scattered storms to our north. Most of this
activity will remain out of our forecast area, however there is a
20% chance of an isolated storm along our Red River counties this
afternoon. Similarly, as the mid-level ridge shifts, there is a
20% chance of isolated storms over East Texas tomorrow afternoon.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The forecast discussion below remains in good shape for the
extended period. North & Central TX will continue to experience
hot temperatures near the triple digit mark for much of the week,
including the 4th of July holiday. An upper level trough will
slide through the Plains Days 6-7, with a cold front likely
knocking highs down into the 90s and bringing low storm chances.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with
rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite
a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will
keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw
this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect
ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week.

Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge
will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves
into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into
the region and would serve as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is
currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an
eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is
subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring
a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with
high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period. Wind
speeds should generally remain AOB 10 kts, be out of the southwest
between ~10-16Z, then the southeast between 20-05Z. No sig weather
is expected at ACT or D10, but isolated storms could impact the
Bowie cornerpost between about 19-00Z today and tomorrow
afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83 102  82 102  83 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                80 101  78 101  79 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               77  95  77  97  78 /  10  20   0   0   0
Denton              81 102  80 103  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            80 101  80 101  81 /   5  10   0   0   0
Dallas              82 101  82 102  83 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             78 100  78 100  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           80 100  80 101  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
Temple              79 101  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 102  77 103  79 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ129-130-141>143-
156-157.

&&

$$