568
FXUS64 KFWD 022009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
/This afternoon through Wednesday/

Excessive heat and humidity will remain through mid-week with
strong ridging aloft, plenty of sun, and a constant supply of
Gulf moisture. Afternoon temperatures will hover around 100
degrees with the hottest temperatures in the west and the highest
humidity in the east. Afternoon heat index values will reach
between 105 and 110 overall, but some locations in the east could
exceed 110 briefly this afternoon. We will maintain the Excessive
Heat Warning in the east with a Heat Advisory for most other
locations through the afternoon. We will wait for the late
afternoon forecast issuance to extend/change any heat products for
tomorrow. New guidance coming in suggests that afternoon heat
index values will be below 110 in nearly all locations, so we may
not need to extend the Excessive Heat Warning, but we will need a
Heat Advisory for most of the forecast area.

Subsidence under the ridge should suppress all convection, but a
few storms may move up from South Texas on the sea breeze
Wednesday afternoon and approach the far southeast zones.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Independence Day Through Next Week/

The mid-level ridge responsible for our extended period of above
normal temperatures will steadily deamplify the remainder of the
week, eventually repositioning itself over the Southeast U.S. The
final day of our current bout of heat will be Independence Day
when a Central Plains storm system will allow a rare mid-summer
cold front to invade the Southern Plains. This will also mark a
pattern shift that will maintain milder temperatures and above
normal precipitation chances through the second week of July.

The 4th of July will be indistinguishable from other recent hot
days with many locations reaching the century mark. Unseasonably
rich moisture will push heat index values into the 105 to 110
range across much of the region. Despite a steady (albeit light)
south wind, the risk of heat-related illness will be high,
particularly for those engaging in outdoor activities who are not
accustomed to spending much time exposed to this level of heat
and humidity. Take all necessary precautions to avoid heat stress,
including wearing light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, drinking
plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in
air-conditioned areas. Rain and storms are not expected to impact
holiday festivities with afternoon/evening activity confined to
two areas: (1) along the front from West Texas into Oklahoma and
(2) sea breeze convection to our southeast. However, there is a
low chance that the frontal activity could enter our northwest
before midnight Thursday night.

Without the ridge to prevent its forward progress, the cold front
will move deep into North Texas on Friday. Showers and storms will
accompany its passage, but reduced instability and seasonally weak
shear should preclude any severe weather. Even outside of rain-
cooled areas, increased cloud cover in the postfrontal air will
result in the mildest daytime temperatures since before the summer
solstice. The exception will be much of Central and East Texas,
which may remain in the sunny pre-frontal sector during the
afternoon hours. This could increase the instability enough to
allow a few strong storms if the boundary mechanics are adequate.

The front will likely stall or retreat on Saturday. Even if the
post-frontal air never reaches Central Texas, rain chances and
increased cloud cover should finally allow the entire region to
enjoy below normal daytime temperatures. Sunshine and southerly
winds will return early next week with a corresponding rise in
temperature, but the ridge`s absence will cap afternoon highs in
the mid 90s. The lack of inhibition will also maintain daily rain
chances.

Throughout next week, the Lone Star State will remain beneath a
col, separating the Southeast ridge from a similar bubble over the
Desert Southwest. There is an outside chance that this could
encourage Beryl to approach. The GFS is the most bullish with this
scenario, but a plurality of extended solutions favors
persistence. We will continue to assess this with subsequent
forecasts, but this afternoon`s package will include a new Day 7
(Tuesday next week) that will maintain seasonal temperatures and
above normal precipitation chances.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

...VFR and south flow...

No aviation weather concerns are expected in and around the TAF
sites through Wednesday afternoon with only a few daytime Cu and
some passing high clouds.

A south wind will prevail in the 6 to 11 knot range along with
some daytime gusts near 20 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  83 101  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco               100  78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               98  79  98  79  97 /   5   0   5   0   0
Denton             102  80 101  80 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney           101  80 100  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  83 101  82 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  79  99  79  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana          101  80 100  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple             101  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      102  78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-
095-105>107-121>123-135-148.

&&

$$