644
FXUS64 KFWD 040819
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/
/Through Friday/

Key Points

- Another hot day is expected today with widespread heat index
  values between 105 to 109F. A Heat Advisory in effect through 8
  PM today.

- Rain chances will increase after 9 PM along the Red River, then
  gradually make their way southward through the rest of the
  evening/night.

- Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday, ending the 11 day
  heat advisory streak

The mid-level ridge, which has been over North and Central Texas
the last week and a half, will finally begin migrating eastward
today. Unfortunately for North and Central Texans, this means we
have one more day of above normal temperatures along with
dangerous heat index values. For those who will be celebrating
outdoors today, remember to stay hydrated and seek shade as often
as possible. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s to around 104
with heat index values mostly between 105 to 109.

The ridge breaking down means we`ll begin to see a more active
weather pattern moving into the Southern Plains. A cold front will
be pushing southward into Oklahoma late in the afternoon. Showers
and storms that develop along the front will have the potential
to produce outflow boundaries that will likely surge southward
into our region. Should this occur, a few showers and storms would
be possible beyond 9PM along the Red River. Gusty winds and
lightning will be the main threats with any of the evening and
overnight activity. Depending on the southward progression of the
boundary, low rain chances may linger through the night across
North Texas.

The cold front`s position on Friday will dictate just how warm
conditions will be in the afternoon. At this time, the expectation
is for the front to be through all of North Texas prior to noon.
Temperatures in North Texas will be the coolest with upper 80s to
lower 90s. In Central Texas, mid 90s can be expected. Given heat
index values will FINALLY be below 105 for the much of the region,
a heat advisory is not expected for Friday.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus,
the weather discussion below is still valid. A cold front pushing
into North Texas on Friday along with disturbances passing through
the weak NW flow aloft will lead to almost daily rainfall chances
for most areas and near to below normal temperatures for all
areas through Day 7/Wednesday. Current forecast precipitation
totals for this period will generally range from 0.5-1.0 inch
across North Texas and 1.0-2.0 inches across Central Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/

After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last
day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A
pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover,
rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will
continue well into next week.

The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when
showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could
enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday
festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the
activity may survive through the night as the front enters North
Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight
hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak
shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the
severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization
across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a
few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries
can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time.
Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential,
but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2
inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall.

As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will
steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be
able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially
if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal
southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant
sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal
values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms
may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection
will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at
North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could
bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a
remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may
remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve
toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with
ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall
and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are
a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC
forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep
Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been
steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still
several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s
post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue
to assess this potential as Beryl approaches.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Clear skies are ongoing across North and Central Texas, and this
will persist for a few more hours. Closer to sunrise, MVFR stratus
will develop across the Hill Country, and begin shifting
northeast. Although the expectation is for the ceilings to remain
just south of KACT, we`ll have to continue monitoring trends in
case clouds are a bit farther north than currently expected.

By this afternoon, expect mostly clear skies once again with
southerly winds continuing. Looking beyond 24 hours, a cold front
across Oklahoma is expected to fire off showers and storms, some
of which may push an outflow boundary southward. If this boundary
materializes, northerly winds may arrive after midnight tonight
and continue through the night. More on the potential wind shift
in subsequent forecasts.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  79  92  75  93 /   0  20  50  20  20
Waco                99  78  95  75  92 /   0   5  20  30  40
Paris               98  75  90  70  93 /   0  40  50  20  20
Denton             101  76  92  72  93 /   0  30  40  20  20
McKinney           100  77  92  72  93 /   0  40  50  20  20
Dallas             101  79  93  75  93 /   0  20  50  20  20
Terrell             98  76  93  72  92 /   0  20  50  30  20
Corsicana          100  79  94  75  93 /   0  10  30  30  30
Temple              99  76  96  75  93 /   0   5  20  30  40
Mineral Wells      102  76  91  71  91 /   0  20  40  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$