420
FXUS64 KFWD 042355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
655 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Woohoo! You made it! The last triple digit temperature day for the
foreseeable future is nearly complete! The current Heat Advisory
will be allowed to expire at 8PM this evening with no plans on an
extension into Friday.

Thunderstorms have developed along and south of a cold front
currently laid across Central Oklahoma. A cluster of storms near
Ada, OK has kicked off an outflow boundary that will approach the
Red River in the next hour. It is uncertain how convection will
evolve along this boundary during the overnight hours, however a
couple high-res models do have activity extending as far south as
the I-20 corridor later tonight. Loss of daytime heating and
increasing MLCIN should keep coverage on the lower end.

Better chances for precipitation will arrive Friday morning
generally after sunrise as the actual cold front pushes into North
Texas. With weak wind shear and ~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
unorganized clusters of thunderstorms are the most likely storm
mode capable of producing isolated strong downburst winds.
Outflow from these storms may kick off more cells throughout the
day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
afternoon, generally shifting southward with the front, and then
decreasing in coverage Friday evening with a loss in diurnal
heating.

With increased rain chances/cloud cover, northeasterly flow
behind the front, and upper troughing over the Central Plains
shunting our persistent ridge axis off to the southeast, you can
expect noticeably cooler temperatures on Friday continuing into
the weekend. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected
across much of North and Central Texas Friday afternoon with some
locations in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley peaking in the
mid to upper 90s ahead of FROPA.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/
/Saturday Through Next Week/

After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a
significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next
several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the
West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased
cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime
temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will
continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also
see impacts from a tropical system.

The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a
weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout
the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With
the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the
Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its
associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and
Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging
front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push
daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With
little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop
Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The
more organized convection will be associated with the frontal
boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge
at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite
seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will
occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on
Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering
flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But
with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s
becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored
direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale,
guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the
mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would
then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North
and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss
amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our
negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally
mild/wet pattern.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the remainder of this evening with south
flow around 10 kts. Thunderstorms across south-central Oklahoma
have kicked off an outflow boundary currently located about 25
miles north of the TX/OK border. It is uncertain how convection
will evolve along this boundary later tonight, but there is a low
chance (less than 20%) for TSRA entering the D10 airspace in the
05Z-07Z timeframe (have kept out of the TAF for now). If this
boundary makes it to D10 later tonight, a wind shift out of the
north-northeast is likely.

Better chances for TSRA impacts will likely arrive Friday morning
generally after 14Z as a cold front pushes into North Texas.
Brief lowered cigs and visibilities are possible with any more
robust storms. A noticeable wind shift out of the northeast is
expected behind the front and will persist through the remainder
of the day Friday.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  89  75  92  77 /  20  50  20  30   5
Waco                78  94  75  92  75 /  10  30  20  40   5
Paris               75  89  71  91  71 /  40  40  10  20   5
Denton              76  88  72  93  73 /  30  50  10  20   5
McKinney            77  89  73  92  73 /  30  50  10  20   5
Dallas              78  91  76  92  76 /  20  50  20  30   5
Terrell             76  90  72  91  73 /  20  50  20  30   5
Corsicana           78  94  75  93  76 /  10  30  20  40   5
Temple              76  96  75  93  75 /   5  20  20  40   5
Mineral Wells       76  88  71  91  72 /  20  60  20  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$