703
FXUS64 KFWD 031600
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon Through Thursday Afternoon/

The heat will hang on through the Fourth of July holiday with
North and Central Texas remaining on the western periphery of the
ridge aloft. Shallow moisture will keep the sky mostly clear,
allowing for maximum solar heating. Highs both this afternoon and
Thursday will range from the upper 90s to around 104. Afternoon
heat index values will remain in the 105 to 110 degree range for
all but the southwest zones where dew points will mix out the
most. We will maintain the Heat Advisory for all but the southwest
zones through Thursday. The Heat Advisory will most likely not
need to be extended for North Texas on Friday due to more clouds
and the passage of a weak cold front (as discussed in the long
term discussion below).

The only concern other than the heat will be an uptick in fire
starts since fuels have been drying out due to the heat, and
there will be multiple ignition sources due to Independence Day
celebrations. The good news is that sustained wind speeds will remain
below 15 mph for the most part, so the threat for significant
fire spread will stay low.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

The eastward shift and breakdown of the mid-level ridge overhead
will open the door for returning convection and relief from the
ongoing oppressive heat through the extended forecast period. As
4th of July outdoor activities wind down Thursday evening, our
focus will be on the cold front sliding through southern Oklahoma
and West Texas. The front is projected to move into North Texas
Friday morning, with a gradual slowing of its southward progress
later in the day in response to the departing upper trough. While
large-scale forcing for ascent will largely be displaced to the
north/northeast, frontogenetical lift from the surface boundary
should be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front. The risk for severe
weather generally appears low however, given the unfavorable
timing of this initial convection...during the overnight/pre-dawn
hours when instability is at a minimum...and weak vertical wind
shear.

There is likely to be a moderate spread in afternoon temperatures
on Friday between areas under the influence of increased cloud
cover/rain-cooled air and the sunny prefrontal warm sector. The
result will be high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
along and behind the front and the mid/upper 90s ahead of the
front. Depending on where the boundary settles, the combination of
strong diurnal heating (ahead of the front) and ample available
moisture is likely to allow for some airmass destabilization and
the potential for a few strong storms during peak heating on
Friday. The main area to watch looks to be near and south of I-20
and east of I-35 where moderately strong instability may be
realized.

Though the front is expected to stall or maybe even retreat
northward on Saturday, rain chances and increased cloud cover
should keep temperatures near or below climatological normals
across the entire region on Saturday. Morning lows will be in the
70s and afternoon highs will be in the lower 90s. North and
Central Texas will remain situated between ridges late weekend and
into next week with broad troughing to the north. Shortwaves
passing through the resultant weak northwest flow aloft will
maintain an unsettled pattern complete with lingering rain chances
and relatively mild (near-average) temperatures before upper
ridging builds east of the Rockies mid to late week.

Hurricane Beryl, currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in the Central
Caribbean, is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche Friday
evening as a tropical storm. The weakness or col over the south-
central U.S. may encourage Beryl to take a more
north/northwestward turn into the Western Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Uncertainty remains in how the land interaction along the
Yucatan Peninsula will weaken the system, the shear profile over
the Western Gulf, and how the position/strength of the col/ridge
pattern over the central U.S. will affect the track. This
uncertainty could affect the extended forecast for areas spanning
from Tampico, Mexico to Lake Charles, Louisiana and points inland.
For North and Central Texas, the evolution of Beryl is worth
watching for potential direct or indirect impacts.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

...VFR and south flow...

High pressure will hang on through the TAF period, yielding great
flying weather across North Texas. Other than a few passing high
clouds, the sky will be clear and no visibility restrictions are
anticipated.

A south wind will continue between 6 and 12 knots along with some
daytime gusts around 20 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  82 100  79  93 /   0   0   0  20  40
Waco                99  79  99  79  97 /   0   0   0   5  30
Paris               98  79  97  75  92 /   0   0   0  30  40
Denton             101  80 102  76  92 /   0   0   0  30  50
McKinney            99  81  99  77  92 /   0   0   0  30  40
Dallas             101  82 101  79  95 /   0   0   0  20  40
Terrell             99  79  98  77  93 /   0   0   0  20  40
Corsicana          100  79  99  79  97 /   0   0   0  10  30
Temple              99  77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells      101  79 102  76  92 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$