414
FXUS64 KFWD 032324
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
624 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Another night of warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s
approaching/exceeding record high minimum temperatures is
expected tonight. Sunny skies and south-southwesterly low-level
flow on the western periphery of an upper-level ridge will allow
afternoon temperatures to rise into the 97-104 degree range across
much of North and Central Texas Thursday. We will keep the Heat
Advisory going for most of the forecast area through Thursday
evening, minus our far southwestern zones where afternoon mixing
will drop dewpoints into the low 60s.

Fuels and vegetation have been drying out across the region due to
this prolonged period of rain-free, hot conditions. With 4th of
July celebrations expected to be in full swing over the next
couple of days, we are concerned about an uptick in new fire
starts. Thankfully, wind speeds will remain generally below 15
mph, limiting the potential for rapid wildfire growth and spread.
However, do take extra caution if you are partaking in any
"flammable" activities over the next couple of days. Stay safe and
have fun y`all!

Relief is in site! The 4th of July holiday will be the last day of
widespread triple degree heat through at least the next 7 days
(discussed in the long-term discussion below).

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/
/Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/

After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last
day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A
pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover,
rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will
continue well into next week.

The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when
showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could
enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday
festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the
activity may survive through the night as the front enters North
Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight
hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak
shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the
severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization
across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a
few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries
can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time.
Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential,
but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2
inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall.

As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will
steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be
able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially
if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal
southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant
sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal
values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms
may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection
will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at
North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could
bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a
remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may
remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve
toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with
ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall
and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are
a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC
forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep
Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been
steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still
several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s
post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue
to assess this potential as Beryl approaches.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south winds at 8-12 kts gusting to 20 kts at
times will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. MVFR
cigs may develop across portions of Central Texas early Thursday
morning, possibly approaching KACT after 12Z (less than 20%
chance).

Langfeld

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83 101  80  93  76 /   0   0  20  40  30
Waco                80  99  78  97  76 /   0   0   5  20  30
Paris               79  99  75  91  71 /   0   0  30  30  30
Denton              82 101  77  93  72 /   5   5  30  40  30
McKinney            82 101  77  93  73 /   0   0  30  40  30
Dallas              83 101  80  95  76 /   0   0  20  40  30
Terrell             80  99  77  94  74 /   0   0  10  30  40
Corsicana           80  99  79  98  77 /   0   0   5  20  40
Temple              78  98  77  98  75 /   0   0   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       80 101  76  93  73 /   0   0  20  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$