307
FXUS64 KFWD 011808
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

East Texas will remain largely uncapped this afternoon, 70F+ dew
points at peak heating assuring MLCAPE values approaching or
exceeding 2000 J/kg. The richest corridor of moisture is mainly
east of our area where dew point values are still >75F at this
hour. Convective attempts will be possible this afternoon along
the western periphery of this moisture axis, which will be within
our CWA, but the majority of the afternoon activity will remain
east of our easternmost counties.

The mid-level ridge responsible for our current bout of heat
continues its transit from west to east through the southern tier
of states. During this process, 500mb heights have been at their
maximum (>19,000ft AGL) yesterday and today (Sunday and Monday).
Despite a steady decline in heights thereafter, the cumulative
effect of the heat will mean that Tuesday will actually be the
hottest day of the bunch. Deeper mixing will allow dew points to
fall below 70F along and west of the I-35 corridor both today and
tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday), minimum afternoon values a couple
of degrees lower regionwide on Tuesday. But this reduced humidity
will be offset by the increase in temperature, resulting in
similar afternoon heat index values. Thus, the Heat Advisory has
been extended for another day. There`s the potential for Excessive
Heat Warning criteria to be met in portions of East Texas Tuesday
afternoon, and the need for an upgrade will be assessed with
subsequent forecast packages.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

Triple digit heat will continue through the July 4th holiday with
heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees both Wednesday and
Thursday. Heat headlines will continue through mid to late week
for most (if not all) of the region. Fortunately, some relief
from the triple digit temperatures will arrive later in the week.

A weak cold front will slide into the region on Friday as an
upper level trough moves into the Plains. Low rain chances will
return Thursday night and continue through Saturday as the front
serves as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. High
temperatures will also drop into the 90s behind the front through
the weekend, bringing a temporary end to our streak of triple
digit temperatures. There is good consensus among ensemble
guidance that the ridge will remain over the western CONUS as we
head into next week. This may keep us in an unusually active
pattern for mid July, with additional chances for showers and
storms.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR with south flow. Thunder potential confined to East Texas.

A persistence forecast continues with daytime cumulus and passing
cirrus. The diurnal variation in wind direction will introduce an
easterly component during the afternoon/evening, but with speeds
primarily under 10kts, a one-line TAF should suffice.

Afternoon thunderstorms will be well east of the D10 but may
impact eastern departures and arrivals through the Cedar Creek
Cornerpost. These diurnally driven convective elements will
dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  82 102  82 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  79 101  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               95  77  99  79  98 /  10   5   5   0   0
Denton             101  79 103  80 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            99  80 101  81 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  81 102  83 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  79 100  79  98 /   5   0   5   0   0
Corsicana          100  80 102  79 100 /   5   0   5   0   0
Temple              99  77 101  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  78 103  79 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$