779
FXUS64 KFWD 020821
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 129 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

Key Points:
- Hotter temperatures today compared to yesterday.
- Heat Advisory is in effect for much of North and Central Texas.
- An Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect this afternoon from
  Paris to Sulphur Springs to Palestine. Heat Index values of
  110-112 will lead to a major risk for heat related illnesses.

The center of the mid-level ridge will continue atop North Texas
today, keeping above normal temperatures in the forecast today and
tomorrow. With no mid-level shortwave traversing the region
today, no precipitation is expected. This afternoon`s temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday. The hottest
temperatures will be west of US-281, where highs between 103F to
105F are expected. Elsewhere, temperatures will range between 98F
to 103F.

Afternoon mixing will help keep the heat index fairly close to
the actual temperatures along and west of I-35. In the east,
however, better moisture will yield heat index values about 10
degrees above their temperature. For this reason, an Excessive
Heat Warning has been issued for our far eastern counties. Steps
should be taken to avoid heat related illnesses this afternoon,
especially within the Excessive Heat Warning.

As the ridge weakens some tomorrow, temperatures will be a few
degrees lower. Heat index values will remain largely between
102-108 degrees.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The aforementioned mid-level ridge will maintain the status quo
through Thursday/Independence Day before a pattern change occurs
and introduces the prospect of near normal temperatures and
measurable rainfall Friday and Saturday. To put this week`s heat
into climatological context, Thursdays high temperatures are
poised to tie the record for the 3rd hottest July 4th at DFW.
Additionally, we are on track to threaten daily high minimum
temperature records through the end of the week.

A cold front will push into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon
reaching central Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Though this surface
boundary will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, this activity is not expected to impact 4th of July
celebrations south of the Red River until after midnight. Overall,
the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, therefore no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast with this
update.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout
upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping
mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July
holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both
Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the
103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions
to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the
necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially
if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th.
Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the
A/C, and wear light-colored clothing!

A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place
in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the
Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas
Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal
boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most
likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5"
range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal
boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid-
summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s
(possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and
Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a
toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep
an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging
placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a
ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the
lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it
crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of
guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico
with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to
monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have
weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 129 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

No significant weather is expected at any of the North and Central
Texas TAF sites. High clouds will continue through the rest of the
early morning hours. Winds through sunrise will be out of the
southeast, becoming southerly in the afternoon. Cumulus clouds
will once again develop this afternoon but no precipitation will
impact the region.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  83 100  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco               101  78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               98  79  98  79  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton             102  80 101  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney           101  80 100  81  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas             102  83 100  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  79  98  78  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana          101  79 100  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple             101  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      103  78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-148.

&&

$$