Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
279 FXUS64 KFWD 260617 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 117 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ A cluster of storms in southern Oklahoma has exhibited a weakening trend as it continues moving south late this evening. Most (if not all) of this activity is expected to dissipate prior to reaching the Red River, but low (20%) PoPs have been introduced through the morning hours in the event a few showers or storms are able to survive the journey into North Texas. We`ll have additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The first will be associated with a complex of thunderstorms that has developed from Nebraska into Iowa and Missouri. This system will continue moving south and may skirt portions of eastern North and Central Texas later today. Additional thunderstorm development may occur with any outflow boundary from the dissipating cluster of storms in Oklahoma, mainly during peak heating this afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially during the afternoon hours, but marginal deep layer shear will preclude a greater severe weather threat from materializing. Low storm chances will linger into Wednesday night across our eastern zones with the passage of another weak shortwave, but rain chances should shut off as mid-level ridging builds in again on Thursday. Aside from the rain chances, summer heat will continue to plague the region. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around 103 degrees with heat index values between 105-110 for most locations. While there is some bust potential with the current Heat Advisory today given the potential for rain, no adjustments will be made due to the uncertainty in location and coverage of storms through the afternoon. Heat Advisory criteria will be met for most locations again on Thursday, so expect an extension through Thursday at some point tonight or later today. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ A weak surface boundary will be draped somewhere across the northeast third of the region at the start of the forecast period, which may warrant 10-20 POPs on Thursday where an isolated storm or two may occur. Subsidence associated with a strengthening ridge aloft will shut down most convective attempts, however, keeping the vast majority of the region hot, humid and rain-free. The ridge will remain overhead through the weekend and actually strengthen during the early part of next week. Triple digit high temperatures will be the result just about every afternoon with heat index values regularly in the 105 to 110 degree range. Sunday will be another day where a few storms may occur across the northeast associated with another weak front, but POPs will again remain 10 to 20 percent. Strong ridging and oppressive heat will otherwise likely continue through the July 4th holiday. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ A cluster of storms in southern Oklahoma has recently exhibited a weakening trend as it moves south. Most (if not all) of this activity should dissipate before crossing the Red River later this morning, but a stray shower or storm can`t be ruled out in North Texas through the morning hours. Additional storms will be possible throughout the day, mainly across eastern North and Central Texas, but this activity is expected to remain east of the terminals. MVFR stratus is expected later this morning, but will likely remain patchy across D10. Otherwise, VFR will continue through the period with southerly winds near 8 to 12 knots. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 100 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 99 78 97 78 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 94 77 97 78 / 20 5 0 0 0 Denton 77 100 78 101 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 98 79 99 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 101 81 100 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 97 78 97 77 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 98 79 97 79 / 20 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 99 76 97 77 / 5 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 78 102 78 100 78 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$