Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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444 FXUS64 KFWD 270619 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 119 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Our evening thunderstorms near the Red River have dissipated, but some low rain chances will linger across our eastern zones through the morning as showers and storms continue to develop ahead of a weak frontal boundary. While most of this activity should remain just to our east, we`ll carry some low (20%) PoPs in the event we see some development further west than what is currently being observed. Most areas will remain rain-free throughout the day, but with the front draped from NW to SE across the region, additional isolated showers and storms are expected to develop during peak heating this afternoon near and south of boundary. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid 90s to near 103 degrees with heat index values mostly between 105-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Any convective activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating during the evening hours. The axis of a mid-level ridge will shift back over the region on Friday which will shut off our rain chances. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s to near 104 degrees. We will meet Heat Advisory criteria once again Friday afternoon with heat index values between 105-110 degrees, so expect the Heat Advisory to be extended through tomorrow at some point today. While heat index values will exceed 110 degrees for a few locations both today and tomorrow, we will fail to meet the two-day criteria for issuing an Excessive Heat Warning outside of a handful of sporadic locations. Nonetheless, it`s going to be hot, so ensure you stay hydrated and practice heat safety if spending any time outdoors. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ /Friday Through Independence Day/ Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday). This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110 despite the hottest temperatures so far this year. The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex. By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts within our region. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Isolated showers and storms are possible across eastern North and Central Texas tonight but will remain well east of the terminals. East winds will continue across D10 behind a weak frontal boundary, with wind speeds remaining below 10 knots. Winds will generally remain out of the south at KACT but may be variable at times through the morning until they become southeasterly this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms may develop near KACT during the afternoon, but any activity will dissipate near sunset. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 81 99 82 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 79 99 79 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 73 96 79 96 79 / 0 0 0 5 10 Denton 79 101 79 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 77 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 80 100 81 101 82 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 76 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 79 99 79 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 78 99 79 98 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 79 101 79 100 78 / 5 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$