Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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223 FXUS64 KFWD 271955 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ /Through Friday/ An upper ridge currently centered over far West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will gradually trek east over the state of Texas the next couple of days. Expect oppressive heat and humidity to continue through the short-term forecast period and beyond with widespread afternoon highs in the mid-90s to low 100s. Our local Excessive Heat Warning criteria is for areas that are forecast to observe 110+ degree heat index values over two consecutive days. Many locations across the DFW Metroplex and its collar counties exceeded the 110 degree heat index threshold Wednesday afternoon and are expected to reach the same mark later today. Therefore, an Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect through this evening for the Metroplex and surrounding areas where heat index values between 110-115 degrees are likely. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory remains in effect where heat index values are expected to remain below 110 degrees or this is the first day the 110 degree threshold is met. An area-wide Heat Advisory will likely be extended into Friday evening, but we will kick the issuance to the evening forecast shift when the EHW expires to avoid confusion with the heat headlines. A weak frontal boundary currently bisects our forecast area from the northwest to the southeast along a Jacksboro-Corsicana line. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of this boundary this afternoon into this evening as the region remains on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. The best potential for thunderstorms (20-30%) looks to reside across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where deeper moisture and a healthy cumulus field is currently present. The environment will support isolated strong downburst winds and marginally severe hail. Most locations will remain dry through this evening. Hot and dry weather will continue into Friday as the upper ridge moves directly overhead. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night into Next Week/ The heat will remain the dominant headline as we move through the weekend into next week. A mid-level ridge will continue scorching North and Central Texas, which is slowly moving its way east to reposition itself across portions of the Southern Plains. Monday and Tuesday will see the strongest subsidence as the ridge peaks right over head. This will result in afternoon highs rising above the century mark for most locations, especially across our west. Heat indices will generally range between 105 and 112, meaning future heat products will almost be guaranteed each day. Continue to remain vigilant when fighting against the heat and take the proper precautions to stay safe, especially for those vulnerable. The forecast period remains mostly rain-free, with the exception being through Sunday where a subtle shortwave may move across to our north. A weak surface boundary may push into our northeastern counties, which could result in isolated thunderstorms. Coverage should remain quite sparse, and most locations will remain dry. While Independence Day sits just outside of the long term forecast period, preliminary data seems to suggest hot and dry conditions for any festivities. Continue to check for updates! Reeves && .AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions with southeast flow at 5-12 kt will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley later this afternoon and may approach KACT in the 22Z-02Z range. If storms move over the terminal, strong downburst winds and frequent lightning will be possible. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 81 99 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 80 98 79 98 78 / 10 5 0 0 0 Paris 72 95 78 96 79 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 79 101 79 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 77 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 80 100 81 100 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 80 99 79 98 79 / 10 5 0 0 0 Temple 79 99 79 98 77 / 10 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 79 101 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100-101- 105>107-115-116-120>123-129-130-135-141>143-146>148-156>162-174- 175. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ102>104-117>119-131>134-144-145. && $$