Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
738 FXUS64 KFWD 281053 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: An Excessive Heat Warning and a Heat Advisory have been issued ahead of this afternoon`s expected hot temperatures. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s to around 104 with heat index values maxing out closer to 112. Aside from a few minor temperature updates, the rest of the forecast remains unchanged. Wind speeds this afternoon will pick up with a few gusts up to 20 mph. I wish I could say this will add some relief...instead, it will most likely feel like you`re in front of a blow dryer. Remember to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing and take frequent breaks if you`re outdoors. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ Dangerously hot conditions are expected across North and Central Texas both this afternoon and once again tomorrow afternoon. As the high pressure center becomes established atop our region, temperatures are expected to be 3-5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday afternoon. The slightly warmer temperatures, coupled with moderate humidity once again this afternoon, will make for yet another uncomfortable afternoon outdoors. Heat index values will range from around 105 to 112. The early morning guidance has increased the probability to ~70% that some areas along and North of I-20 will reach heat index values of at least 110 degrees. An Excessive Heat Warning is likely to be issued in the coming hours to account for this trend. Those across the region, but especially in North Texas, should plan accordingly to prevent any heat related illnesses. This includes wearing light-colored clothing, drinking plenty of water and staying indoors as much as possible. Tonight, temperatures will continue to be above average as widespread mid to upper 70s are expected. The immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is likely to remain in the lower 80s tonight. Tomorrow, another hot day is in store with widespread triple digits once again. The dangerously hot heat index values will once again develop with the Excessive Heat Warning likely extended through Saturday evening. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ /Saturday Night Through Next Week/ The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week. The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing advisory can be expected for the next week. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions continue across North and Central Texas with some mid and upper level clouds in place. Southeasterly winds are ongoing at this time, but those will become southerly by late this afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually increase through the late morning and early afternoon hours, likely topping out closer to 15-17 knots. Tonight, low-level clouds are expected to return mainly across Central Texas, leading to MVFR restrictions at KACT. A south/southwesterly trajectory of the low clouds will likely keep the bulk of the impacts to the east of the North Texas TAF sites. If the low-level flow becomes a bit more backed, stratus may be introduced within the DFW Metroplex in subsequent TAF issuances. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 81 99 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 10 Waco 99 79 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 95 78 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 5 30 Denton 101 80 101 79 99 / 0 0 0 5 10 McKinney 99 80 98 79 97 / 0 0 0 5 10 Dallas 101 80 99 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 97 78 97 78 96 / 5 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 99 80 98 78 97 / 0 0 5 0 5 Temple 99 79 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 101 78 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-102>105-117>121-131>134. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-100-101-106- 107-115-116-122-123-129-130-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$