986
FXUS64 KFWD 010516
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Trough Tuesday/

Not much change to our sensible weather is expected today compared
to this past weekend as we remain under a strong ridge overhead.
Warm and muggy conditions will persist through Tuesday with the
Heat Advisory continuing throughout much of the region. The
exception is across western portions of Central Texas, where a bit
more afternoon mixing will keep heat index values below 105
degrees, therefore, no heat headlines are in place.

The rest of the region will continue to see heat index values
between 105 to 110 with light southerly/southwesterly winds
persisting. There will be a weak shortwave that will traverse from
north to south along the Texas/Louisiana border, likely leading
to a few showers and storms across East Texas. Overall, the
probability of any afternoon precipitation will remain limited to
20% across our far eastern counties.

Rain chances will diminish after sunset, leaving behind hot and dry
conditions through the middle of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/
Update:

The forecast discussion below remains in good shape for the
extended period. North & Central TX will continue to experience
hot temperatures near the triple digit mark for much of the week,
including the 4th of July holiday. An upper level trough will
slide through the Plains Days 6-7, with a cold front likely
knocking highs down into the 90s and bringing low storm chances.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with
rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite
a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will
keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw
this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect
ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week.

Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge
will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves
into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into
the region and would serve as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is
currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an
eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is
subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring
a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with
high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

Southerly/southwesterly winds and VFR skies will prevail across
North and Central Texas. High clouds continue to stream in from
the east, however, impacts to the aviation community are not
expected.

A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible across East
Texas today. These should remain outside of the D10 airspace,
reducing any potential impacts to North Texas arrivals/departures.


Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 101  82 102  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78  99  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  97  77  98  78 /   5  20   5   0   0
Denton              79 101  79 102  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            80 100  80 101  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas              80 101  83 102  83 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             78  99  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           77 100  80 101  81 /   0   5   5   0   0
Temple              76  99  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       76 101  77 102  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$