733
FXUS65 KFGZ 011130
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
430 AM MST Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain through Wednesday, before drier and warmer conditions set
in for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through this morning...An area of showers and
thunderstorms stretches from Wickenburg to Winslow to Chinle this
morning. This area should gradually shift east and weaken through
the remainder of the overnight. Isolated embedded heavy downpours
will be possible.

This afternoon through tonight...High pressure over the central US
continues to draw moisture northward into Arizona. As a result,
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop
across much of the region by the afternoon.

Debris cloud from overnight convection may delay initiation this
afternoon, especially over the eastern portions of Arizona where
clouds hang on a bit longer this morning. Thus, the greatest
instability looks to be concentrated south of I-40 for the first
part of the afternoon, where 00Z HREF guidance has around 1000 J/Kg
of surface-based CAPE forecast. As clouds break and destabilization
occurs, insatiability should expand northward. Flash flooding looks
to be the primary threat with PWAT values around a inch for much of
northern Arizona, to upwards of 1.4 inches across central Arizona. A
few stronger storms may develop, although weak shear should limit
the overall severe threat.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A trough sweeping through the Great Basin
will gradually shift moisture eastward as the high begins to
retreat. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms gradually decreases
through the middle of the week. Tuesday storms will mainly be
focused over the eastern-half of the state, with the activity then
shifting to mainly the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains by
Wednesday. Localized flash flooding and a few stronger storms will
continue to be possible.

Thursday through Sunday...As the trough pushes east, drier air is
advected into Arizona with any remaining moisture limited to the
southern portions of the state. At the same time, heights begin to
rise as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Western US.

Much warmer temperatures follow suit, with afternoon temperatures
around 5-10F above normal by Thursday and Friday. Excessive Heat
headlines may need to be considered as we get closer.

Moisture looks to remain at bay through at least the weekend, with
only a slight chance of some isolated showers and storms around the
White Mountains. Beyond the weekend, ensemble guidance largely
supports a drier pattern to start of next week, however solutions
begin to diverge among the individual ensemble members so confidence
in the return of deeper remains low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 01/12Z through Tuesday 02/12Z...SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through 02Z-04Z Tuesday, then clearing
overnight. VFR outside of storms, storms may produce MVFR. Daytime
sfc winds S-SW5-15g20kts, gusty and erratic near storms/outflows.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/12Z through Thursday 04/12Z...SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA 18Z Tuesday-02Z Wednesday, mainly VFR with
only ISOLD convective activity after this. Daytime sfc winds SW-W5-
15g20kts, gusty and erratic near storms/outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms
will continue, most active on Monday, with coverage decreasing on
Tuesday and shifting a bit southeast. Outside of thunderstorms and
outflow activity, expect daytime southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
retreats to east-central Arizona Wednesday, with dry conditions
Thursday and Friday. Expect a pronounced warming trend during
this period, especially late in the week. Winds generally light, but
taking on more of a northwesterly direction by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff