052
FXUS65 KFGZ 020344
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
844 PM MST Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop each afternoon through Wednesday, before drier and warmer
conditions set in for the holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A few thunderstorms have developed over the Four Corners
region this evening. As a result, added thunderstorms chances in
extreme northeastern Arizona through the late evening hours. This
activity should diminish after midnight. Otherwise, the current
forecast is on track with no major updates required.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /411 PM MST/...Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms have developed mainly along and south of I-40 this
afternoon moving towards the east-northeast at about 10 to 15 mph.
Given the abundant moisture from the surface to the mid-levels,
the potential for flooding remains the main threat from any of
these storms during this time. According to updated hi-res
guidance, storm coverage will likely increase over the next few
hours, spreading across much of northern Arizona. Showers and
storms look to linger through the early evening hours before
tapering after sunset.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect the chances for precipitation
to decrease as temperatures begin to increase, all thanks to a
building ridge of high pressure just off the West Coast.
Mentionable to chance of POPs remain in the forecast for Tuesday
afternoon, confined to areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
As the high strengthens towards the west, west-northwesterly flow
becomes more enhanced, forcing moisture towards the south and
east. By Wednesday, slight chances (15-20%) for storms are in the
forecast for the same locations as Tuesday with a further increase
in west-northwest winds, 15-25 mph.

As we head into the holiday weekend, confidence has become strong
in a drying and warming trend persisting through at least Sunday.
The high pressure system mentioned previously is the main reason
for these trends as much, if not all, of the ensemble guidance
available indicates this high pressure moving onshore by Friday,
then migrating slowly eastward through the weekend. For Sunday
into Monday, long range guidance has this high centered over the
southern Great Basin with enhanced north to northwest flow
remaining in place over Arizona and New Mexico. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms become nonexistent during this time as
temperatures return to 5-10 degrees above average by Thursday.
Afternoon humidity is forecast to be quite low with teens to
single digits likely each day. Good thing for the recent rains as
fuels are not quite as dry as they were a few weeks ago across
northern Arizona.

By the middle of next week, this high pressure ridge looks to
continue migrating eastward gradually becoming centered over much
of the western half of the country and strengthening. Depending on
the overall strength of the high and its positioning, monsoon
moisture could try to return by this time. Both the EPS and GEFS
show PWAT values gradually increasing by the middle of next week,
which is a good sign. Hopefully this long term trend continues and
the Four Corners High moves in position.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 02/00Z through Wednesday 03/00Z...Scattered
thunderstorms and TEMPO MVFR conditions along and east of I-17
and south of I-40 will gradually diminish around 02Z Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop again primarily
near the White Mountains region Tuesday afternoon. Winds may be
gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail over northern Arizona through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/00Z through Friday 05/00Z...Isolated
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the Mogollon Rim
Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions forecast over northern
Arizona Thursday. Primarily VFR conditions are forecast over
northern Arizona.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This evening through Wednesday...Showers and
thunderstorms will decrease each day and shift southeast. Outside of
thunderstorms and outflow activity, expect daytime southwest winds
of 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions Thursday and Friday with
a pronounced warming trend. A few storms could return to the White
Mountains on Saturday. Winds generally light, but taking on more of
a northeasterly direction by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TM/LaGuardia
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff