168
FXUS65 KFGZ 301050
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 AM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected for the newt few days, before decreasing again from about
mid-week onward. Expect light winds and seasonable temperatures
early in the week, before a strong warming trend develops for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong outflow, emanating from a decayed
thunderstorm complex south of Tucson earlier tonight, is moving
northward to the Phoenix area this morning. We are already seeing
some light rain shower development in the mid-levels ahead of this
outflow, with more development likely by 4-5AM, as the boundary
layer outflow enters southern Yavapai County. This is all set up
from the southerly flow over eastern Arizona, due to a ridge to our
east and the continued presence of a trough over the Pacific NW. We
expect further development this afternoon, especially from the I-17
corridor north and northeast, as higher moisture values stream into
the area. By tonight, the overall pattern remains the same, but MCS
development shifts northward, setting up a potential for nocturnal
activity in our CWA, as active outflows push north and west
overnight.

Due to the cloud cover and rain-cooled air that potentially may
develop tonight and early Monday, it could actually be a down day
for Monday afternoon, leaving Tuesday as the next active period.

By Wednesday, the Pacific NW trough finally dislodges and move east.
However, instead of the sub-tropical high reestablishing itself, it
will retreat eastward and allow an even stronger Pacific high to
take its place. This pattern may displace moisture southward as
early as Wednesday, perhaps totally drying our CWA by Thursday and
Friday. This could end up being a very hot pattern for the holiday
weekend. But, there is some disagreement in high placement after Day
5 or so, we will have to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 30/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...Scattered
SHRA/TSRA after 19Z, with more widespread activity developing
from south to north after 02Z. Periods of MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic outflow winds possible in and around TS. Winds S/SW
around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/12Z through Wednesday 03/12Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA each afternoon. Periods of MVFR conditions and gusty,
erratic outflow winds possible in and around TS. Winds SW 10-15
kts on Monday, becoming W 5-10 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Scattered showers and storms are
expected across much of northern Arizona each day, some activity may
continue into the overnight. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and
around thunderstorms. Near-normal to below normal temperatures,
along with southwest wind 10-25 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue through Wednesday, with drier conditions returning for
Thursday. Warming temperatures, along with west winds 5-10 mph
through Wednesday, becoming northwest 10-15 mph on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff