Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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728 FXUS65 KFGZ 270401 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 901 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity decreases for Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from Sunday into next week. && .UPDATE...Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Navajo and Apache counties this evening. This isolated activity looks to persist overnight with greatest chances across northeastern Arizona, near the Four Corners, according to the recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and SREF. Elsewhere, expect drier conditions with near average temperatures. West-southwest winds are still on track to increase across northern Arizona for Thursday afternoon as a low pressure system makes its way through the Pacific Northwest. Surface to mid-level moisture will stick around for the most part, however, greatest chances for thunderstorms will be for locations north and east of the Mogollon Rim. Any activity that does develop for Thursday afternoon should taper later in the evening. Widespread, drier conditions are forecast for Friday and Saturday as southwesterly flow persists. The current forecast remains on track with minor changes needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /419 PM MST/...A much less active day is underway across northern Arizona in the wake of this morning`s MCV passage. Ample cloud cover this morning has delayed daytime heating with convective initiation just beginning. Less available instability today will limit the coverage of showers and storms, with the best chances being west of Flagstaff and along the New Mexico border. That being said, plenty of moisture remains in place with PWATs (preciptable water) ranging from around 1.00 - 1.50". Any storms that do develop will have the potential of producing 1-2" rainfall amounts. Localized flash flooding will be the greatest concern today. Low wind shear should limit any severe potential, but some hail and gusty winds are possible. The moisture stays around for one more day on Thursday before a couple of drier days arrive. On Thursday, a trough of low pressure moving through the northwestern U.S. will nudge the subtropical high pressure southward while a drier southwesterly flow begins to develop. Expect the focus for showers and storms to shift to areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with drier conditions south and west of Flagstaff. The enhanced southwest flow will increase wind shear, especially across northeastern Arizona, leading to the potential for some longer lived and stronger/severe storms there. Much drier air sweeps over the area Thursday night through Friday. A dry day area-wide can expected Friday with the only chances for rain Saturday confined to the White Mountains. The dry days will be short-lived as subtropical high pressure building north and west again beginning Sunday will again usher in additional moisture from the south. Expect precipitation chances to increase and spread north through early next week. With more sunshine over the weekend, and high pressure building back into the state next week, temperatures will be on an increasing trend reaching a few degrees above normal. The monsoonal pattern looks to continue through much of next week, though confidence decreases in the moisture by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...Thursday 27/00Z through Friday 28/00Z...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist until 04Z before ending. Expect another round of scattered thunderstorms along and north of a KIGM-KPRC-KSOW line Thursday afternoon. Light winds overnight will become southwest at 10-20 kts on Thursday, but could gust up to 40 kts in the vicinity of thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Friday 28/00Z through Sunday 30/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast except for isolated thunderstorms over far eastern Arizona early Thursday evening. A near shutdown of storm activity is forecast for Friday and Saturday. Look for Gusty/erratic winds near any thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On Thursday, the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim north and east. Look for mostly dry weather to move in on Friday. Southwest winds increase Thursday and Friday to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Saturday through Monday...Mostly dry weather on Saturday with the only storm chances confined to the White Mountains. Expect moisture and storm chances to gradually increase from Sunday onward. Temperatures will warm above average with daytime southwest winds of 10-20 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia/MCT AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff